Originally posted on 12/04/2014:

I don't know what RF's overall total receord is but if he is above 52.4% then it makes sense to play many games. Playing more games that have a >52.4% is far better than playing one or two games that have a 50% chance of winning. More games actually lowers your variance. Remember you need to see at least 1000 or more picks to get an idea of how good a capper is. For instance, in football if a capper plays one pick a week, than maybe he will have 25 plays total for the year. That is far too few games to indicate how good or bad he is. Many cappers know that their record is forgotten once the season ends so by posting one or two plays a day/week, they will have more followers because the average person knows little about variance or the mathematics behind betting. No one wants to lay out 40-50 units in any given day since the average bettor does not have proper money management. If you use a 1/2 or 1/4 kelly betting system, your losses will not have any emotional effect on you. Just my two cents