Originally posted on 10/22/2014:

my model has +120 and i give giants like 5 to 10 points off that cuz i don't think home field matters here as much and i do think experience factors slightly which is part of the previous point i guess. if the royals get runners on though, i feel like they're gonna have a decent time running. that's what makes me want to stay away. i had confidence in bumgarner keeping them off the base paths and neutralizing their speed as far as stealing second if they got on so i didn't account too much extra for that. i have to tonight as on this stage (as opposed to reg season) their speed value is underrepped for what my comp spits at me.

also if theres no buy back on this steam just before the game starts, you gotta think royals bettors have a ton of value at anything better than the closer. seems to work that way.

edit: exactly coin, if it gets pounded down before first pitch it's telling also a lot of the time.