Originally posted on 10/22/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
Let's say you liked the Royals. You pass on the series bet and go with them in Game 1 instead for a unit (again, the key here is both Game 1 and series prices were virtually identical). They lose. Shouldn't you just double up at the current series price now that they're +175?
Well for one after game 1 the situation has changed. You could have changed your mind on the series and not want to make that bet anymore. Also you can risk losing 2 stakes instead of 1. Both are really entirely separate bets (your game 1 bet and your "chase" series bet). Betting the series before or after game 1 is a completely different thing.


Anyone not wanting to waste their time should not read the middle part of my post. lol. just move on to the last sentence.



But focusing on the "math" of it all, ie supposing that the books are completely right and that their odds represent each team's chance of winning:
Game 1: Giants -109/Royals -101 (pinny closer)
Series before game 1: Royals -114/Giants +103 (i seem to remember that was it, at least at one point, at pinny)
Series now: Giants -190/Royals +171 (pinny)
SUPPOSED series odds if the Royals had won game 1: Royals -200/Giants +180 (hope you guys find this fair enough considering Royals were a slight fave before the series, they would be slightly more favoured than the Giants being up a game, especially it being a game they were very slight underdogs for)

GAMBLER 1: guy bets Royals series 1.14/1

GAMBLER 2: guy bets Royals game 1 1.01/1. If it loses, bets Royals series 1/1.71



SCENARIO 1 (49.1% chance of happening): Royals win game 1.

GAMBLER 1: Has Royals series 1.14/1. Has a 65.1% chance of winning according to the odds.

GAMBLER 2: Has won 1 unit. (ie, 100% chance of winning)


SCENARIO 2 (50.9% chance of happening): Giants win game 1.

GAMBLER 1: Has Royals series 1.14/1. Has a 36% chance of winning according to the odds.

GAMBLER 2: Has lost 1.01 unit (ie 100% chance of losing that unit). Now risks 1 unit to win 1.71 units on Royals +171 and has a 36% chance of winning. So in total, the bet equates to risking 2.01 units to win 0.7 units in the case where the Royals lose game 1.



So all in all:
GAMBLER 1: 49.1%*65.1%+50.9%*36% = 50.3% chance of winning his 1 unit. (ie 49.7% chance of losing 1.14 units.)

GAMBLER 2: 50.9%*100% = 50.9% chance of winning 1 unit.
49.1%*36% = 17.7% chance of winning 0.7 units
(ie 31.4% chance of losing 2.01 units)







So all in all, it gives you a better chance to win but you're risking losing more. But that's just if you do your 2 bets robotically. The reality of it is that both bets are separate and one should always reevaluate their position after game 1 before "chasing" on the series in my mind.