Originally posted on 07/12/2014:

Well, it seems like it isn't lol.

I was bored so I played a little bit around with Excel and used the following stats to calculate my own odds:
- away/home SP WHIP L30d (or last 4 starts) (I typed in a WHIP of '1.110' as '110', all the other WHIP numbers were treated equally)
- away/home SP WHIP in away/home games
- away/home SP WHIP overall
- away/home BP WHIP L7d
- away/home BP WHIP L30d
- away/home team wRC+ L7d
- away/home team wRC+ L30d
(I didn't use any other stats!)

Next steps:
- divided both numbers for the respective stat (for WHIP numbers: home stat/away stat; for wRC+ numbers: away stat/home stat)
- sumed up the results for the SPs and weighed them differently (1,1 times: WHIP L30d and WHIP overall, 0,8 times: WHIP away/home games), added them together and divided them by 3
- sumed up the results for the BPs and divided them by 2
- sumed up the results for the offense and weighed them differently (1,2 times: wRC+ L7d, 0,8 times: wRC+ L30d) and divided them by 3
>> Now I had 3 results: SP WHIP, BP WHIP, wRC+

After that:
- sumed up the mentioned 3 results, weighed them differently and divided them: ((12*SP WHIP result)+(6*BP WHIP result)+(9*wRC+ result))/27
>> Now I had a calculated interim result. If it was smaller than 1.00 it would mean that the home team is favored by the calculations, if it was bigger than 1.00 it would mean that the away team is favored by the calculations.

Then:
- since the numbers were very close together I divided the interim result by 1.075 if it was smaller than 1.00, or multiplied it with 1.075 if it was bigger than 1.00
>> Now I had a calculated and adjusted end result which I used to calculate my odds.

NOTE:
I only used the games from today which feature 2 starters with at least a few starts this season. This means that I didn't include the following games:
- NYY @ BAL because of NYY SP Greene
- STL @ MIL because of MIL SP Nelson
- LAA @ TEX because of TEX SP Mikolas
All the other games were calculated.

After that:
- I took the end result and made the following calculation for the away team to calculate the odds for the away team: 2 + (1-end result)
- this has two possible consequences: 1) if the home team is favored, the away team's odd would be bigger than 2.00 or 2) if the away team is favored, the away team's odd would be smaller than 2.00
- I took the odd from the away and calculated the odd for the home team via: 4 - (odd for away team)
- this has two possible consequenes: 1) if the away team was a dog with an odd bigger than 2.00, the home team's odd would be smaller than 2.00, making it a fav or 2) if the away team was favored with an odd smaller than 2.00, the home team's odd would be bigger than 2.00, making it a dog.
>> Now I have the odds for the away and home teams.

Next step:
- I calculated the implied odds for both the home and away team
>> Now I have the chance in percent for the away/home team winning this particular game.

Last steps:
- I looked at the current Pinnaclesports.com odds for the ML of both teams and added them
- I calculated the implied odds of Pinnaclesports.com for both the home and away team to see what chance (in percent) Pinnacle gave both teams to win the game

Final steps:
- I substracted the calculated chance for a team from the Pinnaclesports.com chance for a team
>> Now I had a possible 'value', which is very important in sportsbetting as we alle know.

Here you see the results (notice that these odds are decimal, if you want to convert them into american odds please use this converter: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/bett...dds-converter/). The odds for the empty games weren't released yet. Look at how close most calculated ('C') odds/chances are to the Pinnaclesports.com ('P') odds/chances ('V' = 'Value'):
A ASP H HSP C Odd A C Odd H C Chance A C Chance H P Odd A P Odd H P Chance A P Chance H V A V H
CHS Carroll IND McAllister 2,19 1,81 0,46 0,55 2,58 1,58 0,39 0,63 0,07 -0,08
ARI Miley SFG Vogelsong 2,11 1,89 0,47 0,53 2,10 1,84 0,48 0,54 0,00 -0,01
ATL Minor CHC Jackson 1,82 2,18 0,55 0,46 1,83 2,11 0,55 0,47 0,00 -0,02
BOS Peavy HOU Oberholtzer 2,12 1,88 0,47 0,53





MIA Koehler NYM Matsuzaka 2,10 1,90 0,48 0,53 2,13 1,82 0,47 0,55 0,01 -0,02
MIN Correia COL Matzek 1,80 2,20 0,56 0,45 2,31 1,70 0,43 0,59 0,12 -0,13
TOR Hutchison TBR Odorizzi 2,10 1,90 0,48 0,53





DET Porcello KCR Shields 1,76 2,24 0,57 0,45 2,08 1,85 0,48 0,54 0,09 -0,09
PIT Morton CIN Leake 1,91 2,09 0,52 0,48 2,00 1,93 0,50 0,52 0,02 -0,04
WSH Strasburg PHI Hammels 2,07 1,93 0,48 0,52 1,78 2,18 0,56 0,46 -0,08 0,06
OAK Chavez SEA Iwakuma 1,89 2,11 0,53 0,47 2,01 1,92 0,50 0,52 0,03 -0,05
SDP Kennedy LAD Maholm 1,78 2,22 0,56 0,45