Originally posted on 05/03/2014:

Quote Originally Posted by mrginandtonic View Post
Finally, Kentucky Derby weekend!!! DRF Race of the Day: Kentucky Oaks R11, 1 1/8 on dirt.

The 13-Untapable is the morning heavy favorite 4-5. What can you say about this filly, two back to back 100+ beyer speed figures, has tactical speed and draws away at the end. Impressive resume. So what is not to like about her?? may be the post position, but at 1 1/8 with her style, it proably won't be that much of a compromise. In fact, it may help her from running into traffic problem. So I guess the question is who is gonna run second?! There is a lot of talks about 4-Rosalind and 11-My Miss Sophia. I like them too, but I will put them to 3rd or 4th. For second, I am gonna go with the 8-Aurelia's Belle and 9-Unbridled Forever. They both have tactical speed and should get a good trip just behind the front runners. Turning for home, I expect the 8, 9 and the 13 to be in the mix with the 4 flying at the end. I personally likes the 8-Aurelia's Belle alot because she is by Lemon Drop Kid (Kingmambo) and Aurelia (Danzig) and she is 50-1 ML, I really think she will get better with distance. Also, 9-Unbridled Forever, is by Unbridled's Song (Unbridled) and Lemons Forever (Lemon Drop Kid). I gonna do exacta box 8,9,13 and 4 and trifectas and superfectas keying 8 and 9 with some others. Hopefully, one of the long shots will come in.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome. GL all!!
Untapable was much best yesterday. Too bad the 9-unbridled forever couldn't get second otherwise the payout would be much better.

Today's Race of the Day is The Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 Dirt. This is without a doubt the most intriguing race of the year and every year. The reason is that they are 3 yr old and who know how they will improve or regress at a young age. Second, it is 1 1/4 mile. Demanding distance for these youngsters. Third, 20 entries max, more than any other race in America. On paper, CC looks most promising but 5-2 ML. He could be like Utapable where he is just so much better. Who can run with him?? My Oaks/Derby double were CC, Chitu, Medal Count, Wicked Strong. Instead of discussing about each entries, I'm just gonna discuss why I like the ones that I like. Stamina is the key feature that I look at first. Most of these are not bred to going 1 1/4. To me, you need to be bred to go long in order to 1 1/4 for the first time. That alone eliminates a lot of the entries. No need to talk about CC, cuz there is so much discussion already. Lets talk about Chitu. I think there is a possibility that he may be a freak coming into its own. He has improved every start and only 4 starts. Already broke the 100 beyer mark, 20-1 ML. Medal count bred to go long but his best race are on synthetic so dirt is a concern. Wicked strong is another one that broke 100 beyer which is plus for me. He is also bred to the distance. Concern is the post but he should be able to stay out of traffic problems. Only 8-1 ML, hopefully he will be a little higher. Everyone has their arguments on each horse but that is what I think. I think the one one that can avoid trouble will have the best chance. Will the pace be fast?? This is a question mark?? On paper it seems like the pace will be swift. But if no one really press Chitu, I think he has the best shot. Gonna box these 4 in exacta and throw a few more in for tri.

As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.