Originally posted on 04/04/2014:
Hit my only play yesterday as the Red/Card total sailed over the 7.5
Since that play only went for 2* instead of 3* that makes us:
YTD 4-2 +5.3* this first week so far.
SF (Vogelsong) +154 over Ryu
LA Dodgers first off are going to be overinflated all year, they have become the new public darlings in MLB replacing the Yankees and Red Sox, and to a lesser extent the Cards, and there will be times when there is a lot of value in fading LA, this (imo) is one those times.
Yes, the Dodgers are the team to beat in the NL West, however, that lineup is nice and all, but it ain't Ruth and Gehrig of the 20's.
Ryu is a nice pitcher and all, but he's not the incarnate of Cy Young and Sandy Koufax.
And the Dodgers are not, are not, +154 better than Vogelsong and SF in this spot.
Giants can rake, at bat for at bat with the Dodgers, they have thump with Posey, Pence, Panda and the rest.
This roster does not fear Ryu
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS CAREER STATISTICS VS. HYUN-JIN RYU BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Ehire Adrianza 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 .000 Joaquin Arias 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 .500 .500 .500 1.000 Brandon Belt 7 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 .143 .333 .286 .619 Gregor Blanco 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200 .200 .200 .400 Brandon Crawford 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000 .091 .000 .091 Angel Pagan 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 .667 .667 .667 1.333 Hunter Pence 14 6 2 0 0 5 1 3 .429 .467 .571 1.038 Juan Perez 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 Buster Posey 13 3 1 0 0 0 3 2 .231 .375 .308 .683 Pablo Sandoval 13 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 .308 .400 .385 .785 Marco Scutaro 12 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 .417 .462 .417 .878 Totals 90 26 5 0 0 6 10 11 .289 .360 .344 .704
On the flip side, Vogelsong is not elite, but he's a good back end of the rotation guy and I like his approach, I am by no means a Giant fan, but I have always liked this pitcher.
Dodger bats have always had trouble with Vogelsong in the past.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS CAREER STATISTICS VS. RYAN VOGELSONG BATTER AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS Nick Buss 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 Carl Crawford 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 A.J. Ellis 16 4 0 0 1 1 5 3 .250 .429 .438 .866 Andre Ethier 16 4 2 0 0 0 1 2 .250 .294 .375 .669 Tim Federowicz 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 Adrian Gonzalez 6 1 1 0 0 3 0 1 .167 .167 .333 .500 Dee Gordon 18 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 .333 .368 .333 .702 Matt Kemp 20 6 0 1 1 5 2 4 .300 .364 .550 .914 Hanley Ramirez 12 1 0 0 0 3 1 2 .083 .154 .083 .237 Justin Turner 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 Juan Uribe 12 5 0 1 0 1 0 1 .417 .417 .583 1.000 Totals 112 29 3 2 2 13 10 14 .259 .320 .375 .695
I don't want to get long winded here, I am betting SF just 2* here, but know this, this is no slam dunk, Vogelsong got touched up earlier this week, this is the Dodger home opener, (which is why I think Vegas has this +154 instead of +145 or so) and Ryu is a good starter.
I am on SF because, (uh oh, he comes the 'v' word) I think there is a ton of value here at +154, I am on SF becuase SF bats can get to Ryu, I am on SF because Vogelsong has demonstrated in the past he can handle these bats.
SF +154 2* gets me 3.08* back.
This is not an auto-tail play, you guys can sit this one out if you are not comfortable.
I like the odds here.