Originally posted on 02/19/2014:

First I will apologize for my lengthy reply, but I was inspired to see a thread dedicated to money lines. I have tracked money lines in college football, college basketball, nfl football, and nba basketball since 2007. My criteria is the games have to be at least -500. There are on average between 1300-1400 occurrences of these type games every year across these four sports. They on average win about 90% of the time! but it's the 10% losers that really hurt your bankroll. Without a doubt the safest place for money line wagering is college football. The riskiest is NBA. College basketball has the most plays. The NFL typically has one maybe two games a week. The mechanics of how you score in football is much different than basketball. A hot three point shooter in hoop can score 12 points in 90 seconds, thus allowing more upsets to happen. In football there are games where two teams could play 100 times and the stronger team would never lose to the weaker team......especially in college football. But in basketball there are games where two teams could play 100 times and the weaker team could win 5 times out of 100 games. In basketball, fouls can put great players on the bench and out of the game. In football the great players stay on the field even when penalties are called on them. Over four quarters in a college football game, the stronger and more talented team has a significant advantage and seldom loses.

My data does lead one to speculate about certain conferences and certain teams. The SEC in college football has had some big upsets with big money lines. One year Arkansas lost as a minus 8000 favorite. One year in college hoop, Iona lost two games as minus 2000 favorites. So as a bettor you have to isolate games where you know you have a physical edge and one team will dominate the other. Motivation is huge factor in sports. You have to include motivation in your handicapping. This us why the NBA is so dangerous. NBA players and teams take nights off. Stay away from the NBA. I have spent many hours on my stats. I am convinced that you can be very profitable betting money lines. You just have to be right when you make a play and you only gave to win the game by one point.

I believe it was Carl Icahn who stepped to the window in Vegas and proclaimed there was no way New England could lose to the Rams one year in the NFL. He bet 3.6 million on the money line on the Patriots and lost. In professional sports, there are players on every team and on any given week one team can beat another. I paid to watch the Houston Texans get their asses kicked by the Jacksonville Jaguars this past NFL season. Houston was a 10 point favorite and list outright at home. I paid to watch Oklahoma beat Alabama in the their bowl game this year. Totally underestimated Oklahoma and Alabamas motivation. When you loose it hurts, so it teaches you to be patient and wait for the perfect opportunity. And when the right situation comes along and you know you have a winner, you can fire with confidence.

If anyone wants to discuss further, feel free to PM me. Money line wagering is profitable, but most don't have the bankroll nor the patience to play the game.