Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=20779836'>posted</a> on 01/05/2014:

Basically yeah fitguy, you're getting the picture, slowly.

Whereas in NFL, NBA and baseball.... the odds on teams are primarily dictated by recent form, that really is NEVER the case in tennis. IN tennis it takes a lot of good/bad form or results to cause the bookies to shift in their assesment of what they make a player and rightfully so.

For example a decent team in the NBA, the denver nuggets would generally be huge favourite at home to the grizzlies considering both teams quality this season, however as the nuggets had one or two dodgy results or so here and there, the bookies gave the grizlies respect at home. Whereas before their dodgy results they were -13 to beat team's like the grizzlies at home for even money odds. lol

In tennis there's the following critera's:

Talent/Ability
Surface - Nadal would not have been 1.4 to beat Monfils last week on a claycourt, he was on a hardcourt.
Motivation Home country, or even town to make it even more influential, or ofcourse defending points.
Form

It ranks in that order^^^^^^^^^^^^

The only time form becomes more important according to a bookie trader is when it's drastically good or bad. All these factors accumulated by data. Data from records on the surface and who they've beaten on the surface. Data from records at home and who they've beaten at home.

The way to get the edge in tennis is by catching the bookies out on what they do not, DO NOT use to weigh up odds on markets.

These are the following:

Record against left handed players
Fatigue
Injury concerns

^These factors only play into market odds once the punters have got their hands on odds and cause shifts to occur.