Originally posted on 10/18/2013:

Quote Originally Posted by riffraff24 View Post
I'm gonna bet the Dodgers regardless. But instead of paying -125, wouldn't it be better to take them for the series then hedge?

I rarely make hedge moves, so just asking
Fair line based on Monday's closer and switching for home field advantage is about -126, should open open around -130 with juice. So LAD should be +120 lets say.

If you bet LAD -125 today and +120 tomorrow, that's a 55.55% chance of winning today and 45.45% chance of winning tomorrow. multiply those two together and if you buy these odds, your chances of breaking even is 25.25%. that translates to a fair line of +316. Another way to say it is bet $1 at -125 today, win $0.80, roll that $1.80 into tomorrow's bet @ +120 and you get back $3.16. Basically betting 1 to get $3.16.

Same scenario but you bet $1 today @ +315 for the series, you win $3.15 if LAD win both games.

If you want to hedge, you'd bet $1 @ +315. Say LAD wins. you hedge tomorrow at -130. using the arbitrage calc by sbr, you bet $2.35 for a guaranteed profit of $0.80. Assuming you have br to hedge, you bet $1 for $0.80 profit should LAD win today. If you bet $1 on LAD to win tonight, you win $0.80 at -125 odds. Both situations, you bet $1. Betting on LAD tonight or betting the series with intent to hedge are reliant on LAD winning tonight, so neither is necessarily "better" than the other.
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That being said, if you think STL will be at -140 tomorrow, you'll end up only arbitraging for a 73¢ profit. Boils down to if you think you can get STL better than -130, bet the series and hedge. If you thnk STL opens more favored than that, take LAD tonight.