Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=19844528'>posted</a> on 10/07/2013:

When you are dealing with a short season the want is always to play right out of the gate. There is no depth or substance to any statistical value until week 4.

If any of you are familiar with Sagarin you are familiar with the term Bayesian. It is used to describe an interpretation of probability with a formulation for uncertainty. This is used until teams are interconnected and the reliance of the weighted starting logic is removed.

In short it has a lot of weight on the past and little reliance on the calculable predictive. Again because there is little depth to that calculation.

That is also how your mind works. You place a lot of value on your snapshot of what took place last year and not enough on what you have seen today.

Until that bridge is spanned you are constantly struggling to make an informed decision. It is human nature.

In plain English and fukk all the horse shit, the first four weeks of NFL and college football is a fukkin clusterfukk better left alone. Mind you there are some whose minds and spreadsheets can embrace a blank slate from the get go and who quantify sides and totals based solely on what they have seen in the present. Those guys have success now and get killed late, a backwards application of logic.

I am too fukkin stupid to play early and too dumb to last long. Weeks 5 though 14 with random spot plays on either side are all my pea brain can make sense of. I do pretty well with that set of limitations and flounder if I try to stretch or jump the gun.

Its a grind folks. Don't make it harder than it has to be.