Originally posted on 09/11/2013:

Rant time:

1) When someone says "I can't believe the ____ are only a _ point favourite (on the road / at home) against _____! What am I missing?", it's probably the most definitive proof I can think of that this person has NO clue what they're doing at all when it comes to sports betting. None. If you're not confident enough in your handicapping to understand how and why the books set the line where they did, and to have a good reason for why you disagree, then the chance of you being the one that's wrong is approaching 100%.

2) Why are people so convinced that "betting against the public" is an effective strategy? They place SO much faith in public betting % when they have little to no idea how those numbers are generated. No one ever seems to include themselves among "the public" either (98%+ of all sports bettors are lifetime losers), or consider the fact that when EVERY handicapping website and tout out there is talking about betting against the public as a strategy, it MIGHT not be the unique information that will turn you into a winner. Think about it.

And the most maddening thing of all, people that see a line come out on Sunday night and start talking about who the public is on 24-48 hours later. What percentage of the total money/bets do you really think have come in by Monday/Tuesday night for a game on the following Saturday/Sunday? And what's the typical demographic of the guys that have made their bets early? You think the "idiot public" is pushing Sunday night openers around, and that these are the guys you want to bet against? Again, think that through for a minute...

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