Originally posted on 08/12/2013:

You know this peaked my interest, and since I love numbers, I thought I would find what types of players you need to choose to have the odds be in your favor, or in other words, having a better chance than 1 in 5.6 million of picking winners tomorrow. Obviously the season long contest has much better odds because you can pick the same player more than once, but I wanted to know for tomorrow.

This is comparing the streak to the streak of the great Joe DiMaggio. He had a couple really big advantages that a one day format doesn't have. First, if one of your players has the day off and you miss it, you will lose. Joe wouldn't have lost this way, taking a day off doesn't end a streak. Secondly, if he walked in all his plate appearances or had some sac flies and bunts mixed in with those walks, he would have still have been able to continue his streak. A game with no official AB's doesn't break a hit streak.

Okay, so here's the key to winning. First off, match the teams starting lineups with the players you choose right before game time. Choosing a non-starter would be the easiest way to ruin your chances.

Second, DiMaggio averaged 3.98 PA per game. So make sure the players you are choosing hit towards the top of the lineup, stay in the game, and possibly play for the visiting team so they don't lose an AB.

Second, find the right batting average to match the odds. Using the 3.98 PA number, we can then calculate what BA we need to succeed. Check batter/pitcher matchups for the day, season BA's, and the bullpens. If all 57 players have a BA of .301 or more in these circumstances, you are in a +EV situation!

The odds of winning in this situation is 1 in 6.429 million. You're getting paid 1 to 6.5 million. Awesome right???

Just in case you wanted to know. If you could find all the best matchups, and bring your BA up just a bit to a very solid .325, your odds now become 1 in 647,464. You've increased your odds almost 1000%! Now that's some +EV.

In DiMaggios season he was batting .409. That means his likelihood was 1 in 1,585 for his 56 game streak, and would be 1 in 1,807 to do it for the 57.

BOL!