Originally posted on 08/12/2013:

With about 2 weeks to go, I have a few teams on my mind coming into this season where I expect to find opportunities. I'll write something about each of them as I have time. In no particular order:

1) Michigan State

The Spartans, led by Maxwell, were horrible last year on offense. Their passing game was almost non-existent, often leaving Le'Veon Bell as their sole offensive threat on the field. To make matters worse, there was very little depth at tailback, so MSU truly was a one-dimensional team most of the time. Watching Spartans games in 2012 was boring, and sometimes a bit depressing.

Fast forward to this year, and we see Maxwell returning as the likely starting QB, and Le'Veon Bell gone to the NFL. However, MSU returns 4 of their top 5 receivers, and has a host of new RBs competing for carries. Dantonio has selected (converted LB/QB) Riley Bullough as the starting tailback, hoping that he'll be able to establish himself in the MSU run game. I actually like this move, despite it getting a lot of criticism. Bullough is a big presence (6'2", 232 lb) that doesn't shy away from contact and brings a similar skill-set as the departed Bell. After watching a bit of Bullough's film, I was fairly impressed with his mobility and toughness (albeit playing at different positions). I actually think he's going to work out quite well as the #1 tailback. Following behind him, I expect Nick Tompkins to ultimately be the most dangerous RB in the Spartans backfield this season. A smaller, quicker player (5'9", 185 lb), this kid really impressed me in watching his film. He's equally comfortable running up the gut or bouncing the ball outside, he has the speed to be a true breakaway runner (he posted a 4.38 40yd time), and most importantly, his film is loaded with runs where he's fighting for extra yards after contact. He'll work his way up.

In 2012, when you break down the MSU offense, the team was actually a pass-heavy offense, with Maxwell being asked to throw the ball more than he should have. The presence of Le'Veon Bell as the one-man show in the backfield made the Spartans appear to be a more run-heavy team, but that wasn't really the case. Now, with more depth in the backfield, MSU is going to be able to operate a more balanced offense, working behind a fairly experienced Offensive Line. This means less pressure on the quarterback in 2013, whether it ends up being Maxwell, Connor Cook, or Tyler O'Connor. Dantonio plans on operating with 2 QBs to start the year at least, forcing one player to step up to ultimately take the starting QB spot. I think it will be Connor Cook, and that we're going to see a much more capable offense from the Spartans this year.

On defense, there's not as much to talk about. The 2012 Spartans were a top 5 defensive team, lacking a bit in generating pass rush, but featuring an incredible secondary and a very stout front 7. The Spartans' run defense was exceptionally good as well, frequently penetrating opponents' OLs to take down runners in the backfield. MSU's starting linebacker trio of Max Bullough, Taiwan Jones, and Denicos Allen is one of the best in college football. Strong depth in their defensive personnel should allow them to overcome the 2 losses in their front 4 with very little disruption and MSU will be a top 5 defense again this year.

On special teams, Mike Sadler led the Big 10 in punting last year and Michael Geiger is coming into this season as the #1 ranked placekicker in the 2013 recruitment class. In returns, MSU has several players that can handle the ball.

Overall, the Spartans were a bit of a tough luck team in 2012, playing 9 games that ended by a margin of 4 points or less. However, they have one of the best coaches in CFB, a solid 15 returning starters, and have lots of options available at QB/RB. They're being picked to finish 3rd at best in the Legends Division by almost everyone, but I really like a lot of what this team is bringing to the table. Their schedule is very heavily backloaded, with their first nine weeks being: Western Michigan, South Florida, Youngstown State, @Notre Dame, BYE, @Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, @Illinois. After that they finish off the season with: Michigan, @Nebraska, @Northwestern, Minnesota, leaving three of their four toughest games for November, when they will have worked out the uncertainties staring them in the face to start the season. This is not a particularly tough schedule (avoiding Wisconsin and Ohio State), and with an elite defense, the Spartans really only need to improve their offensive production by a bit to make them a legitimate contender for the Legends division.

Final point: The 7-6 Spartans finished the 2012 season ranked 15th in F/+, ahead of Boise State (11-2, 21st in F/+), Clemson (11-2, 22nd in F/+), and Louisville (11-2, 28th in F/+). If you look back to 2011, two other teams stand out in the same way. Texas A&M was 7-6 and 15th in F/+ that year, and Notre Dame was 8-5 and 13th in F/+. The Irish, in particular, make for an interesting comparison, as a team that featured elite defensive talent and just needed a little more from the team to push them to a 12-0 season in 2012. With a manageable schedule, I think the Spartans win 10 or more games in 2013, while largely being undervalued in the betting market.