Originally posted on 07/02/2013:

No. Just no.

I know you're trying to bump your winning percentage of maxibets by betting safe winnerz (you're reasoning for not parlaying is proof enough) but IMsh!ttyO this is not a wise play, regardless of outcome.

Firstly, Edgar is no cheaper than -500 at any American friendly book. How much more often than implied odds of 85+% of the time does Frankie Edgar win this? This is a (burned out?) former champ fighting in a lower weightclass with questionable confidence after 3 straight losses, someone notoriously lacking in finishing ability, and facing an opponent with 4" height/5" reach advantage with a lethal submission game.

Does Frankie win this the (vast) majority of the time? Yeah. How much more often than 85%? Probably nothing perhaps less, given the circumstances. Clear dog or pass...

I'd love to hear technical analysis by Frankie backers on why he wins this more than 85% of the time. All I hear is regurgitated lazycapping about how Frankie can't lose 4 in a row, he arguably beat 2 champs and how Oliveira folds when hit hard (which Frankie doesn't do with frequency).

Betting a combat sports fighter at -500+ in this scenario is -EV. Regardless, good luck cashing. Hopefully it comes through with flying colours because it looks square as penetrate to me.