[stevenash]

Originally posted on 07/01/2013:

Team is a complete fraud and will get buried in July.

Complete fraud?
Wouldn't go that far, but the Cardinals are one of most complete teams I have seen in a few years.
I heard how the Orioles were a complete fraud last year, Pirates are the NL version of that team, winning one run games the way Baltimore did last season, etc. etc. etc.

Let's take a look at the NL Central going forward after the all star break.

Right now, the Pirates are on a magic carpet ride, the first team to 50 wins and the first team to 51 wins.
Go figure, Red Sox and Pirates are the only two teams that have 50 wins so far, but Red Sox talk is another story for another day.

Pirates have won nine straight, and while winning nine straight is impressive, take a look at who they beat.
They swept a really bad Brewer team that is without Cory Hart, Ryan Braun, and a banged up Carlos Gomez.
They swept, at best, a mediocre Mariner team.
They swept an underachieving Angel team.


The Pirates have won nine straight by beating a once pretty good, but now pretty hittable Kyle Lohse, and a couple of ham and egger rookies Donovan Hand and John Hellweg, who aren't ready for prime time, and never will be.

Pirates beat fat Joe Saunders and even fatter Joe Blanton along the way.
Now before we go all sorts of gaga over the Pirates, let's keep everything in perspective.
Having said that, you can only beat what the schedule says you have to play, but nine straight is nine straight never the less.
But I would rather see Pittsburgh win 7 out of 9 against playoff type teams than nine striaght against nowhere teams.

Even at 2 back, which is nothing with 80 games left, Cardinals are clearly the team to beat.
Don't discount the Reds yet either, but they are the third place horse right now at the half way post 6 lengths back.

Looking at the schedule from July 1 on, Pirates play the Cardinals 13 times, 7 home, 6 away.
Pirates play the Reds nine times, three at home, six on the road.

Those 19 games will decide the Pirates October future.
25 percent of the remaining schedule are for all intents and purposes play off type games.

Pirates just don't match up well against the Cardinals.

Baseball games are won and lost with pitching, relief pitching not so much as starting pitching, you handicap games, series, and future first by looking at starting pitching.

St. Louis
Wainwright 0.99 WH/IP ratio 2.22 ERA 8.2 K/9
Lynn 1.16 WH/IP ratio 3.52 ERA 8.8 K/9
Miller 1.06 WH/IP ratio 2.79 ERA 9.7 K/9
Westbrook 1.45 WH/IP ratio 2.95 ERA 4.0 K/9

As a group, there is not a better front four starters than St. Louis

Wainwright is not the clear cut Cy-Young award winner at the half way mark, (you have Harvey, and Lee, and Kershaw, and Corbin to talk about) but right now he has to be the favorite.
Walks less than one a game, gives up 8 scratch type hits per nine innings, doesn't give up homers at all (four HR allowed all season, which is at or near the top for fewest allowed in the majors) walks less than one per nine, strikes out more than 8 a game, has an unreal 9.5:1 K/BB ratio, has won 11 games, should win 20, should win the Cy Young Award.
Right now, Wainwright has no flaws in his game.

Lance Lynn is a ten game winner right now, 1.1 WH/IP is rock solid, 3.5 steady ERA, walks are a little high at 3.5 per, but his 9 K's per nine bails him out. Only gives up seven hits per nine, and like Wainwright, keeps the ball in the part (stingy 5 HR's allowed so far)

Shelby Miller is only 22, pitches like a 27 year old six year veteran.
Has won 8, has an ungodly low 1.06 WH/IP, just as impressive 2.79 ERA, strikes out just about 10 per nine.
Walks ratio is very good (2 per nine) gives up a homer here and there, but find a better #3 starter on any staff, win valuable prizes.
Hell, Miller would be a top five #2 starter on any staff.

Jake Westbrook is getting healthy, ERA is under 3 at 2.95, WH/IP is high because his walk ratio is high, doesn't strike out many, but is so crafty, at 35 knows how to pitch out of trouble, a very, very smart pitcher, that can be trusted in any spot.
Most teams would kill to have a #4 man like Westbrook.

Pittsburgh Pirates
AJ Burnett 1.13 WH/IP ratio 3.12 ERA 6.3 K/9
Locke 1.11 WH/IP ratio 2.06 ERA 10.0 K/9
Wandy 1.11 WH/IP ratio 3.59 ERA 6.6 K/9
Liriano 1.28 WH/IP ratio 2.23 ERA 9.9 K/9

AJ is pitching like he's 25 years old again, Locke is looking like he's the real deal. and after Lee, Kershaw, and Gio, Bumgarden and Sale is in the next tier down of left handed starters with Corbin and the like.
Wandy is steady, and Liriano looks like he has found most of his form that he had in his Minnesota days.

If the Pirates have a downfall the second half, and I hope they don't, because I am kind of rooting for them, but if they do, and I suspect they will, this is why.

Take a close look at the front four starters innings pitched.
None of them are long distance starters.
Quick math (# of starts divided by IP's) prove that all four of the front four average only six innings per start.
That means the bullpen has to account two, most times three inning a game, every game.
Seen in a thousand times, in the dog days of August a tired bullpen that was generally sharp in May, will start blowing games in August.

Look at the numbers now
Grilli is a) 36 years old b) already appeared in 39 games.
I really don't expect Grilli to maintain his lights out 0.78 WH/IP 1.72 relief ERA.
He's on a pace to pitch in 80 games, at 36 years old, it's not feasable to pitch like he did in the beginning of the year.
Games he's saved early in the season will become an adventure.

Same with Melancon, he's pitched in 41 games, he's on a 82 games pitched pace.
His arm is going to be barking by Labor Day, those two can't keep up this pace.
As a matter of fact, Pirates have four relievers that have appeared in 30 plus games so far.

The bullpen will be the reason why the Pirates will finish second in the division to the Cardinals and grab one of the two wild cards.
As good as Watson - to - Melancon - to - Grilli has been, Cardinal trio of Choate - to - Rosenthal - to - Mujica has been better.
Mujica is every bit the closer, if not slightly better than Grilli
Mujica is 21 for 21 in save ops., has a unheard of WH/IP 0.73 walked two batters in 32 outings. That's it, walked two batters all season

As good as the Pirates starting four has been so far, slight edge to the Cardinals staff.
As good as the Pirate bull pen has been so far, Cards are just as good, if not better, and much more rested.

Both teams are pretty much terrific on defense, Molina is the best catcher in the game, he's as good as it gets behind the plate, hits for average, hits for pop, and pretty much has no equal in defensive skills.

Pirates make no mistakes fielding either, Andy Mac in center is as good as any of them, Walker at second is super steady.

Both teams are equally good on defense.

Pirates don't match up well on offense.
Not even close, Cardinal lineup is one of the best in the business, Pirates line up is, at best, mediocre.

Pirates are 19th ranked overall in runs and slugging, 22nd in OBA and 24th in batting average.
Cardinals are 3rd in the majors overall in each of the following categories, runs scored, batting average, OBA, and tenth in the majors in slugging.

Cardinals batting order is stacked.
First four in the order are real tough outs, all hit over .300 and get on base .350 or better.

Carpenter
Molina
Beltran
Craig

Holliday who hits fifth still has scary pop and is having a real off year yet still hitting .267
Freese is more than capable in the six hole, hitting around .275, by the time you get to the bottom of the order, might be too late, you might be down three runs.

Another point, the Cardinal offense is diversified, they have a different player on their team leading in different categories.
Molina leads the team in hitting .345
Beltran leads the teams in homers, but Craig leads the team in RBI's, but Carpenter leads the teams in runs.
Every hitter in that first half of the line up excells in what their job is to do.

You can not compare Marte, Walker, McCutchen, Alveraz, and Garrett Jones ot the Cardinal line up.
Not even close.

Another thing, look at the benches, Cards have super subs like Descalano and Adams ready to step up, Pitt's bench in razor thin.

Couple of other points.
Cardinal are clutch.
Beltran is one of the greatest post season batters in history.
Freese is super clutch, a world series hero.
Team really pretty much doesn't choke.

Personally, I think this St. Louis team is the most complete team I have seen in years, where are the flaws? There isn't any flaws.

Will the Pirates get to the playoffs? I don't doubt it.
Can the win the NL Central? I don't think so.
Can they beat the Braves? Maybe, but I don't think so.

Hope I'm wrong, they are fun to watch, and kind of rooting for them, but the data says otherwise.