Originally posted on 04/13/2013:
If I HAD to make a play here the best value is Dallas including ot IMO. I almost put $50 on it, but it just wasnt juicy enough for me.
I get my info from all over, but I do NOT overanalyze. I am an intelligent guy and have 35 years of being a stats guru behind me. As a 10 year old kid I used to wait for the paper every Tuesday so I could break down the entire NHL mathematically.
I do not do any of this any more. It is a combination of trends, experience and talent, but it goes WAY beyond that. A person with enough experience and intelligence, that has an eye for these kind of things need to go with their initial feelings on games. I am not saying I am any sort of genius, but I think your mind needs to work a certain way....a contrarian way. If you look at last night in the NBA I took a ton of games that the public wouldn't be on....not because I avoid the public, but because I saw the value.....
I swear, if I got too deep into any game I could ALWAYS convince myself to switch sides.....do NOT overthink things, it is a killer.