Originally posted on 03/17/2013:
Thunder is the better team here without doubt..but favourites always win? Hell, no!
OKC is hot recently, 8-2 in last 10 games. However, this could be a let-down spot for visitors. Thunder is 3-0 versus Mavericks this season, going for SS (Season Sweep). Mavs won't surrender easily.
Mavs are 5-1 in last 6. Before beating Cavs by 10 points in their last game, they lost versus Spurs 3 days ago by only 1 point.
The Mavericks are three games behind the 8th-place Los Angeles Lakers in the playoff race..
As I always say, betting HEAVY basketball favourites on Moneyline (specially -200 and above) is a really sucker bet. When betting heavy favourites on ML, consider to lay points or skip. Many times, you can find a much better value on home dog..just like this case. I'm on Dallas ML +191 (Pinnacle Sports) here, Good luck!
Dallas' Win Chance Estimation %39
OKC Win Chance Estimation %61
PS: Dallas +195 is available at 5Dimes.