Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=18023736'>posted</a> on 03/07/2013:

So, you're saying he is another Rodrigo Lopez?

Remember him a few years back and his spring?

Lopez was hitting high 90's--- had a 4.3K/BB ratio, then blew up in the regular season with an ERA over 5.60.

And then there was Ricky Nolasco.

He threw something like 25 innings, walking just one hitter, and had an ERA of something like 1.28, he ended the year with an ERA approaching 5, giving up something like 1.6 HRs/9 IP.

Sorry, I just don't put much stock into spring numbers. You can't isolate 25 ABs and think they predict anything, and you can't look at 20 IP and think it will carry over to the regular season. Guys start breaking own in late August, they get overworked, and there is nothing in spring training that can predict that.