Originally posted on 02/21/2013:

and with the fire (aka. positive variance)...the inevitability of the unwelcome return of it's evil twin must be prepared for...

I play a lot of baccarat and bet only on banker...over the haul it wins 50.68% of the time...but it's very common to go on runs like 32-18...and you just know that a hideous flip-side run is "due" (not in the stupid chaser's "next bet" sense...but in the intelligent sense of knowing that over the haul short-term extreme periods of departure from 50.68--whether very hi or lo--can NOT persist and MUST be eventually offset by extreme departures in the other direction)

with a good capper like Nino here...the bankroll grows gradually by "breathing" thru the upswings ($-inhales)...then bearing with the inevitable counter-trend (or "corrective") downswing ($-exhales)...before
the trend re-asserts itself and another run of positve variance starts another upswing/inhale...etc etc

problem is, lots of babies on here don't understand how an account must breathe, how cold and hot periods necessarily intertwine (just as night and day, the seasons, etc.)...and when even a modest downswing sets in they immediately swing into "bich n blame" mode...very often the same guyz with the most exuberant "high fives" and "u da man" posts turn into the whiniest brats when the $-exhale bit kicks in

i certainly am enjoying this run...and hope it would continue forever...then Nino and his followers would never have to work another day in our lives...BUT...just in case the rules of probability and statistics reassert themselves...I offer up this

PUBLIC SERVICE DISCLAIMER

when you, me, or anyone pushes the submit button on any wager on their OWN account...for whatever reason...whether "blindly tailing" or "capped it by yourself"...makes absolutely no difference...

if you locked the play onto your OWN account and no one had a gun to your head...then it is your OWN wager...

i dont want to think about the hundreds of good threads ruined by idiots who cant' grasp that

So when a Nino play clikks all us makin' money can hi-five Nino and congratulate ourselves for recognizing a good source of value...but when a cold patch hits...we gotta remember we have no right whatsoever to bitch at anyone, apart from ourselves...but even that's unnecessary...cuz losses are not "mistakes" anyone made...theiy're simply the necessary business expense we have to be willing to make in order to cash the winning tickets!...

this is the highly-complex "win some/lose some" (aka. "that's the way the the cookie crumbles") principle of sports investment (and life)

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To be clear...I do not post this to be a "Debbie Downer"...I post it so that even one would-be whiner might catch himself before poisoning a good thread with idiotic, totally-useless bitch-n-blaming posts...

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short-version: eventually a painful losing run will kick in...it's no-one's fault...so, enjoy the current heat but keep your bet-sizes a small-enough-% of your roll so that when the cold-weather comes it doesn't wipe you out...above all, now that you're wised up and grown-up about variance...don't lash out at others when a downswing comes...and, while waiting for the upswing to return...take your losses like a man, not like a baby