[MD]

Originally <a href='/showthread.php?p=17142608'>posted</a> on 12/16/2012:

But seriously man, scale bets down. The variance in MMA is ridiculous, dont bet on 8 fights, bet on 2 you are sure of, and do so smartly and in a way that is supported by your bankroll.

In the mean time, get a steady source of income to support your bankroll. Working isnt a terrible idea.

While I agree with your other points, and I believe your overall intentions to be correct, the answer isn't to bet on less fights, for a couple of reasons. The first is what you touched on, variance. If you have an edge in gambling, more picks will decrease your variance, not increase it. The second is because, with the limited amount of fights that take place in MMA, there aren't as many opportunities for betting; with the limited number of picks, your workrate needs to increase accordingly. I had a very high output of picks this weekend (close to twenty), for this particular reason. MMA is (generally) one of the only sports I bet, but I gamble at high stakes (for MMA, probably mid-high for some other sports that have higher limits), so I need the increased number of picks. It's more work, but it decreases variance and, if my edge is what I think it is, I'll significantly increase my long-term profit. If my edge is accurate, a 70% bet will win close to 70%. So, better to have ten of them than five of them.

Gabe, you'll be a happier and more successful person if you get a bankroll and stake using Kelly. I understand if you can't, currently, but you'd be happier if you did. That, I can almost guarantee you.