Originally posted on 12/11/2012:

The vast majority of people simply don't understand the math and don't care to. They feel like they can pick winners and beat the odds on parlays ... and 95% they're a bookie's best friend for it.

Parlays can be fine in small doses by experience gamblers but most people play them for the quick buck or convince themselves a bunch of shit will go their way.

And god forbid they win one because they'll give it all back and then some chasing that dragon again. Books love it.

There is no such thing as a free lunch ... so just cuz there are high moneylines parlaying them is far from automatic or a good idea like people are hinting at.

One of the most basic concepts of probability is that independent events get multiplied together for the overall chance, so you can quickly see how parlays become a losing proposition.

Even if you had three games that you assign a 75% chance of winning, your total chance in a 3-team parlay is only .75 *.75 * .75 = 42% ... also, it's pretty hard to assign 75% or more to spread picks, and if you do moneylines instead you're gonna get crushed on the payout even after parlaying.

It's generally stupid to need multiple events to all go right just so you can get even money or a return that could be obtained from capping single events.

In most cases if you have picks you are confident about just bet them straight up rather than parlay. At the very least reserve tiny amounts for parlays and view them for what they generally are - shots in the dark.