Originally posted on 09/30/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by Ernie Mccracken View Post
Should probably read this book before getting too carried away.
despite what people want to try and claim sports betting has absolutely nothing, zero, nada, to do with any sort of financial market.

While prices might fluctuate like one to some extent, the results are based on an independent event.

The sooner people figure out that sports betting isnt about the spread or who is betting what but is determined by what happens on the field the better off they will be.

I have been betting on sports since the mid 80s. I had systems and trends, and situational data from the get go. Any 'theory' these guys post or posted on the internet I had or disproved long before the copy and pasted it from whomever they plagiarized it from.

Now all that being said this 'system' is as simple as it gets, probably why it works. But it does work, and it picks winners. If not for getting 'greedy' (playing a +300 dog on the ML) the thing is 6-1 today. After going 4-0 last week. Plus it hasnt hit its wheelhouse yet, which is still another week away.

So right now it is 10-2, does that mean it is going to regress? Hard saying. I doubt it, but even if it does you take the bad with the good. 3-4 next week is still 13-6 overall. With a few ML dogs sprinkled in.

But I am not about records or W-L numbers, I go by what the bank roll does. I havent played all these plays, but I have played most of them. All I know is it is showing a profit, and I was basically doing it to show that you dont need to be fancy to beat the NFL or at least pick a few winners. I literally spend 7 or 8 minutes running the numbers. Then maybe a half hour total looking for the best lines and trying to get them matched somewhere where I play. So it isnt a lot of work thats for sure.

it will take you longer to read what I just wrote than I will have spent doing it.