Originally posted on 08/23/2012:

Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
Guys lets compare Mathdotcomm accounts to Justins and I think you will see who the real king is here

Justin 7 is sharp but not in Mathy's league
LOL both internet 'winners'. Perception isnt reality.

But I will agree with what the OP said. Dont believe any results or numbers unless you do it yourself. Thats why I built the biggest and probably best database around. Because all I heard for years and years was 'the 3 in the NFL is worth x amount to buy on and off from'. Well I looked at results against openers, closers, moves, and best available, and the price was not even close to being 'worth' any number ever thrown around. Also factoring in how rules changes and other things have taken place that the number of 3 point games has dropped DRAMATICALLY in the past 6 or 7 years it makes it even less.

But in the end past results and the 'numbers' dont mean too much when it comes to predicting future outcomes. All it can do it maybe possibly give you some insight into situational plays.

The whole thing about these math guys and 'market' guys is they need moves and extremes to justify what they call 'value'. Thing is guys betting into lines first who have an original opinion are going to be guys who make much more profit that guys following moves or looking to get ahead of steam and trying to beat guys to the punch.

Example. I dont post many plays but when I do they generally win. I also generally post plays that are 'anti steam'. Meaning I had an original opinion on a game but watched everyone else go against that opinion. So I just wait until it reaches its apex and then buy it. Most recent was Padres Yesterday. They opened +115. Generally if I was going to play that game on a 'money making' venture I would have hammered Pittsburgh at -125 and then looked to buy back and win no matter what. But because I am gambling now and not really churning and burning arbitrages or leads I simply waited out my 'strong' opinion and took SD one way for +145. They got to 150 in a few places but I can live with 145 where I got them. So it comes down to semantics. I could easilly say betting Pirates -125 for a ton, and then buying back Padres for 145 or whatever was the 'smartest' decision. You hammer a 20 cent arb and you make a locked in profit. But I can also say my 'opinion' outweighed that 'wasted' money and I picked the strongest side at the best odds. Which like I say is semantics. I have long said getting both sides for a locked in profits is the most efficient and fastest way to make money. Which it is. But if you have a good opinion and can actually pick more winners than losers then occasionally hitting these games one way works as well.

That's where followers have the disadvantage. Guys who bet Pirates early (in this example) supposedly got the 'strong' side at the best odds. But it was a loser. So even though these market and math guys think that their Pirates play at say -130 was a good play (considering they got to -155 at most places and -160 at a few) it was a loser. Thats why the MLB chews these guys and spits them out. Because the moves are extreme and brutal. Guys sit there and watch a screen all day but really only need to watch it right when lines first come out and about 5 minutes before first pitch. But they try and get all technical and fancy and generally not only dont have the winning side they also dont get the best odds. So a double mistake.

But its all semantics. A lot of people know 'what' to do and 'how' to do it. Just not many do it correctly.