Originally posted on 03/29/2012:

I'd like to weigh in here as a character witness of sorts...so it's not just dj blowing his own horn

The main point of this post is to address the allegation made that DJ is a "johnny come lately" to the family of ideas central to theories of long-term profitability in investment portfolios (probability/eV/edge/Kelly...etc).

DJ has been applying Kelly bet-sizing and edge-quantification principles for at LEAST the last two and a half years. Go to covers and follow his "Destroy the Books" thread and see him methodically more-than-triple a tiny 1.6k account to 5k (in about 5 months)...then doubled it (in 6.5 months). I had the pleasure of following quite closely the full second phase, from 5k to 10, in its entirety...here's what i documented...i was just starting out in sport-investing at the time, and i tracked/analyzed quite closely

*accounting was impeccably comprehensive (see below) and plays were all graded from 1% to the occasional 8% max play [avg play was in the 2-3% range] based on his quantification of "edge" that he referred to occasionally in his posts (which i, as a quantitatively-leaning newbie found intriguing, as it went beyond the usual vague assertions of simply having more "confidence" in a play)
*winning % was just 49.93% but the yield was a nice 3.52%, because the typical play went off at +108.
*variance was quite high...but the worst drawdown ever experienced over the haul was about 30% off its peak...the account was never at risk of ruin
*i'm glad dj was the first capper i ever followed because he helped me develop an awareness that the name of the game is yield (netted/risked) and not just winning %...rather than the usual "wlp,$ (or units)" he reported daily: wlp, risked/returned/netted (much better in my opinion...and essential if varied bet sizes are employed)

I know the accounting was accurate cuz i tracked it meticulously day by day over the full 196 days of the run.
_______________

What the hell, i just found the old sheet i tracked him with...here are the exact stats...

Start date: Wed, Oct 13, 2010
End date: Tue, Apr 21, 2011
Duration: 196 days
Start Balance: 5,000.00
End Balance: 10,015.14
Return vs. start capital: 100%
Avg Compound Rate of Growth: 0.357%/day
-----------------
Number of Plays:735
WLP: 339-340-56 (49.93% of 679 non-pushes)
(Pushes-ignored) Risked: 142,426.89
(Pushes-ignored) Returned: 147,442.03
Pushes-ignored) Netted: 5,015.14
(Pushes-ignored) Yield: 3.52%

I also tabulated for each play an additional stat, what I call, "Targeted"...the amount one would net if the play won. Anyhow, the sum of (Pushes-ignored) Targeted was 154,134.17. I like keeping this stat because it allows one to instantly calculate (not just half-assed estimate) avg odds...in this case 2.08 decimal or the +108 I referred to above.

_________________

People may change, but the dj I got to know at covers was a solid value-hunting capper with meticulous record keeping and the patience to grind out impressive gains over the haul.