Well I just doubled up on N Iowa... Feel really comfortable with that game, everything looks really good.

Today's Card:
Northern Iowa +6

9-5

I know everyone in here uses RLM but I figure extra information can never hurt. I've found comparing statistics of the two teams has helped me a lot in determining BETTER RLM plays from maybe not so good RLM plays. I generally like to play only games that have two "decent," teams and avoid the trash. Seems to me as if RLM works better in those games after going over my spreadsheets and multiple games. I don't know the reason, maybe the sharps are just review those games more in the interest of knowing that the public will be betting those games more often. Here is my thought process for tonights Northern Iowa game.... Probably going to be a long post and if you don't care then scroll down but I'd like to have this written down somewhere so I can keep track of my thoughts and what is working.

Okay... First off I scroll through the games on FSB and look for the ones that have a lot of action. Min of at least 3000 bets, and then I check to see if there is 63% or greater (like RLM), then look for line movement. After determining whether or not this may be a good game to play (mainly look at # of plays more than anything else). After I have decided whether or not it looks like a possible game to play I plug the two teams into my spreadsheet. (If you use it you HAVE TO UPDATE the different tabs EVERY TIME you go to use it.) If you don't press refresh data the #'s will not change and you will be using the stats from up until today for the rest of the year DONT want that. Ok once the teams are plugged in, the first thing I look at is their Offensive points (calculated by possessions*offensive points per possession) (((Virginia Commonwealth has a 1 point advantage here))) After finding the difference in the "Off points," between the two teams I do the same for the Defensive points (calculated by possessions * Defensive points per possession). This # you do NOT want be to large. This value stands for the amount of points they let the other team score against them. (((Virginia Commonwealth has a 3 point lead here))) ... so far VCU has a calculated spread of roughly giving 4 (IMO). Next I look at turnovers, despite what most people think teams turnovers have played out big for me this year so far, I DEFINITELY recommend incorporating this into your spread. So after finding the difference here (N Iowa has a 1 pt advantage here) ... total spread at -3. That's how I usually arrive at my calculated spreads. Seeing as how N Iowa is getting 6 points here thats a 3 point differential. Let me see if I can figure out why. Northern Iowa is killing them in Effective Field Goal PCT and True shooting percentage, so that doesn't make sense to me (these values basically tell me the overall decency of the teams involved). Next I look at Sagarin's strength of schedule/power ratings. (Mostly just the strength of schedule) ((Rank of schedule on my spreadsheet)). I'm thinking maybe now at this point well maybe N Iowa has had a much easier season thus far or something, they're playing easier teams so their stats should be inflated a little bit. N Iowa has a 36th rank schedule compared to Virginia Commonwealth's 182nd ranked schedule. This is HUGE, and NEEDS to be accounted for. N Iowa has been putting up these stats against much harder teams than Va. Commonwealth. Next and the last thing I usually look at is comparing the two teams Sagarin Power rating. Sagarin says to add 3.34 points (at this point of the season) to the home team. (I've already accounted for this by adding that value to the value pulled from the Sagarin spreadsheet) ((So DON'T add 3.34 to the rating already displayed)). Sagarin has a calculated spread of Va Commonwealth -4.16. With all of these stats taken into account I make my decision. Here are the facts:

1.) RLM is on this game, 74% (right now) on Va Commonwealth, lots of bets, .5 line movement (games need to have line movement in order for me to verify them as RLM).
1.) My calculated spread using off points/def points is va commonwealth -3 (3 pt difference)
2.) N Iowa 36th toughest schedule....Va Commonwealth 182nd toughest schedule...
3.) Sagarin's power rating is Va Commonwealth -4.16 (this incorporates the home team advantage) which is more than -6 ((Which tells me to take N Iowa)).

These are 4 big signals, and when there are this many things going in the way of the bet you want to place I have to take them and double up on them. I already took this bet, so hopefully the RLM doesn't fade away before tip-off but the other steps helping me still leave me very confident in this play.


PS- Also I should note the comparing of total off points of the game vs the total def points of the game... That average is what I've been using to calculate whether or not an O/U for a game might be a good play. for example, for this columbia vs princeton game today. The line is at 121.5 (btw there has been RLM on this so far today, line movement of 2 points) I look at the average of the off/def points on my spreadsheet and see that the average is 125.191. While I usually only like to play the O/U's when theres a 6+ difference the RLM here makes a difference in my mind and is a big contributing factor. Probably going to take a little play on it after waiting a few hours to see if the RLM still plays out.