JM 7/5 Results

I have backtested 8 years of the 7/5 method extensively. It is a thing of beauty that is for sure, but as with everything sports betting it is not perfect. It took some tweaking to max out the results, and I'm happy to say the end result is in all likelihood the most profitable way to play the JM system! To start things off I will be posting the baseline 7/5 results. This is without filters and these are not final results, I just wanted to show you all the starting point:

Baseline Results (pre-filter/Not Final)
2003-4: +34.55
2004-5: -27.15
2005-6: -17.1
2006-7: -17.9
2007-8: +96.75
2008-9: +251.4
2009-10: +78.5
2010-11: +172.1
Total: +571.15

As you can see the results at the end are great! Many would have stopped here, and who could blame them. But I personally can not play a method that loses 3 seasons in a row. The method here from this sample has a 43% failure rate. The method pulls out so well only because the winning seasons are so much more than the losing ones. So, being the perfectionist I happen to be, I set my mind on creating a filter...

The Half-Point Buffer and Skip October Filters

The Half-Point Buffer is the result of my efforts. I tried many many different angles and this filter came out on top of them all. Here's how you play it: Whenever there is an A bet for JM, the A bet not only has to lose with the 3pt buy, but also an additional half point, to be considered an official 7/5 play. To be clear - the A bet must lose by an additional 3.5 points to the spread. So if the spread for an A bet is +7, the team in question must lose the A bet by 10.5 points to be a play. A bets that push or win with 3.5 points to the spread are no plays. A quick example - in 2006-7 New Orleans had an A bet with Golden State. The end score was 116-121 and the spread was +1.5 to New Orleans. With 3 points bought the spread would be +4.5. This means the A bet still lost 120.5 to 121. This series went on to lose on the B and C bet as well, making this a losing series. However with the Half-Point filter in place the score becomes 121-121, pushing the A bet. Since this is now an A bet push and not an A bet loss, the series would be a no play. If this is still confusing to any of you let me know and I will do my best to clear it up, but it should be pretty straight forward. There is also a Skip October filter in place. In some seasons playing October was beneficial, in others it was detrimental. Over the course of the entire sample it was shown to cause a net loss in units. Because of this, only series that start in November onward are official.

Now, here are the results with the filters in place. These are final results.

7/5 Final Results (filters in place):
2003-4: +70.85
2004-5: -19.5
2005-6: +12.2
2006-7: +35.05
2007-8: +84.75
2008-9: +244.4
2009-10: +66.5
2010-11: +146
Total: +640.25

As you can see the filter works beautifully and ups the total unit gain by almost +70 units! There is still one season that goes negative however. No matter how hard I tried I could not get every season in the positive. Even so, the method now only has a 14% failure rate, down almost 30%! The season the method does go negative is by less than 1 losses worth of units. Had there been 1 less loss that season we'd be looking at full +'s. So the ability to gain every season is very much possible! For comparison, the traditional JM system over the course of this sample has performed at +382.36 units, 257.89 units WORSE than the final 7/5 results (this is WITHOUT the use of his ML filter, it could be that it has performed even worse than this with the filter included due to bigger losses).

To Summarize:
* Skip series starting in October
* The A bet must lose by 3.5 points to the spread, not just 3, to be an official B/C play. Pushes with 3.5 are also a no play (see example).
* Place to win 7 units on the B bet. If that loses, place your C bet to win back your loss +5 units. If that loses, the series is over. Expect about 7 losses per season on average!
* A lost series is -21.65 units to the roll. Plan accordingly.

So brings the end of this post. Before I go I should note that this method is also profitable if you buy 2pts on the B/C bet. You will experience a few less losses per season, but the losses you still incur will be more costly. In the end, I would just not buy points. This method is incredibly profitable and incredibly easy to play, just be disciplined enough to make the C when you need to. I leave you now with these words: play with confidence my friends, knowing that your playing the most profitable way to play the JM system to date!!!

Thanks for reading and points are appreciated!

PS I am starting work on a version of the 7/5 method for On3's MLB homestand system. I ran a quick test through last years results and the initial impressions look good. More info on this as the MLB season approaches.