[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Celtics over (185) 1x (Locked)

I also think the Wizards cover the 12 points, but I'm taking the over for sure. This one started to move, so I'm not going to get greedy and I will settle for 185. I am hoping there is no move down the road toward the under, but I really don't think that will be the case. This game sets up as a pretty solid over opportunity as we are coming off a game yesterday that ended at 180 with some factors that could have helped this one get a few more points. Boston has not played its usual great defense this season and both teams find themselves in the bottom of defensive efficiency numbers. I think this games set up as a quicker paced game as I expect the b2b tired legs to show themselves more on defense than offense, especially for Boston. Even though Boston hit 50% of their shots yesterday, I don't see an uninterested Wizards defense perform any better today and Boston should at least hit over 45%. However, I do expect a better offensive performance from the Wizards from the field, three point land and free throw line. This game opened up at 184.5 at Pinny yesterday, took some early under money and then steamed all day on the over up to 187. The game ended at 180 yet Pinny opened today at 185 and never adjusted. Pinny started to juice the over at -108 and I jumped on it as that typically indicates a jump is coming. Sure enough, as I check the board while typing this writeup the total is up to 185.5 and looks to be steaming. Make no mistake, Pinny's non-adjustment is telling here. The refs are Zarba, Willard and Roe, all three of which have strong under leans, both historical and recently. Last year, these three refs were top 10 strongest o/u records favoring the over and especially Zarba, who was an over machine all year and especially the playoffs. We had this same crew in the Knicks/Kings over and it worked out well, so I am hoping we get similar results today. I am this game set at 187.5 and I will take a shot on the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Nets under (183.5) 1x (Locked)

I think this one has topped out since Pinny just moved to -109 on the under at 183, so I'm locking this one in now and getting the hook as available at Legends and other outlets. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, but the Nets are much worse with this their 4th game in 5 nights and second of a b2b. The Pacers were off yesterday and I expect their defense to suffocate the same Nets team who have struggled to score against the weak defenses of the Wiz and Cleveland, much less a defense as efficient as the Pacers. Other top defense like Orlando and the Hawks kept this Nets offense under 80. The Pacers are currently the top rate team in defensive efficiency and the Nets play a snails pace as they are bottom 5 in overall Pace. Even though the Nets defense is horrible, the Pacers have struggled this year and are very inefficient on the offensive end. Therefore, I don't expect either team to have a big scoring output. The refs are Garretson, Dalen and Lane, all three of which have a historic under lean, especially Garretson who is known to swallow his whistle at times. I have this game set at 179 and we're getting over 4 points of variance between my number and what the books are offering. That is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bucks (+5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's a spot where I think buying the hook is important as covers in Denver are always hard to come by. However, I love this play and I'm going to play the Bucks for 1.5x because of this is such a tough spot for Denver. First, you have Bucks coming off double revenge in this game against a Denver team that beat them handily both games last year. Second, you have a Denver team that just played two games against the respected Lakers and had to really grind out points against the vaunted Lakers defense (as we well know from losing on the over twice). This game is not as high profile as the Lakers games were and we may not have Denver's full attention tonight. Third, and definitely most importantly, Denver is in a HUGE fatigue spot today because this is their third game in a row and the last leg of a b2b2b2b quirk in the schedule. In addition, before playing the Lakers for two straight games, they played Portland -- another top level team -- one day before the Lakers series started. Therefore, in addition to this being a b2b2b2b spot, this will also be there 4th game in five nights and 5th game in six nights if you factor in the Utah game on December 28th. Denver has now played games on 12/28, 12/29, 12/31, 1/1 and 1/2 -- that is truly a brutal stretch of games and I believe they are tired. Now, lets look at the Bucks who are playing solid defense as usual under Scott Skiles (ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency), but who are actually playing much improved on offense as well. The Bucks now have a healthy Bogut and Delfino to help the inside/outside scoring game to go along with the addition of Jackson which takes some of the scoring load off of Jennings. Plus, we have to remember that the Bucks get Mbah a Moute back today to help out their other role players in Dunleavy, Sanders, Livingston, Gooden and Illasyova. Finally, the Bucks are in a great spot because they are coming off 2 days of rest. Most people like to back Denver at home because of the thin air advantage. However, with Denver in such a bad fatigue spot and Milwaukee coming off two days of rest, I think this sets up perfect for a Milwaukee cover. The line opened up at +5.5 on Pinny, was immediately bet down to +5 and now sits at +4.5, despite over 65% of all bets coming in on Denver. That is very solid movement in favor of the Bucks. I have the Bucks set at +2 and by buying the hook, we are getting a full 3 points of value. I love the value in such a great spot to fade Denver and I am taking the Bucks for 1.5x. Good luck.