Alrighty guys here we go before I even looked at the TOTAL I told myself if the told is below 135 Im playing the OVER. And low and behold the TOTAL is listed at 133.5. So my objective is to currently find a play on the OVER in this game also. But when I saw this I realize St.Johns blows at free throws. Last year these two teams met at Providence and St.Johns stole the W for the night winning
67-65 in a narrow 2 point win. Last years St.Johns team was a very well rounded battle tested Senior Led team and this years St.Johns team is led by an elite group of freshmen still trying to find their coach and themselves as they get ready to enter Big East play. Nurideen Lindsay was the teams best player IMO. He was the point guard that controlled the reigns and is no longer their to lead the team. This was already noticeable in St.Johns narrow LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY win over Texas Pan American!

The Providence players are a veteran squad and experienced for the battle tested Big East field. These players also remember last years 2 point loss to that St.Johns team and are going to take it out on the freshmen squad this year.


Now when St.Johns traveled to Kentucky they pulled out a super super super slow tempo game and used the shot clock constantly. They let that clock run down to the last second or turned the ball over before they even attempted to do anything with the ball. But in the game @ Detroit they played pretty much normal St.Johns basketball which is what Detroit wanted because it equated to Detroit basketball up tempo basketball going up and down the court in transition. Im just assuming that St.Johns plays the fast tempo they usually play. If this is done this will work well for Providence because Providence loves to run the court up and down they love transition offense they love driving the paint. As a team St.Johns only shoots 26% from behind the ARC. Providence shoots 35% from behind the ARC that is a pretty good team average nothing really wrong with 35%


Both teams know how to pull buckets out of their asses though so my LUCK factor I equate into all my games will be interesting actually. I am currently listing the following

St.Johns ( LUCK ) = 2 buckets

Providence ( LUCK ) = 6 buckets = 14 points

I have seen Providence pull buckets out of their asses all year long and expect them to do again tomorrow night.


Im expecting Providence to shoot 48% from the field tomorrow on an average number I took from selected games against comparative opponents this season so far.

Im expecting St.Johns to shoot 33% from the field tomorrow on an average number I took from selected games against certain opponents subtracting Nurideen Lindsday. Ehhhh I just read over this and feel like I might be a little to low on this average. The will only hit 33% if Providence ends up doing what they normally do in the second half when they blow teams out in the second half. I can see St.Johns hitting 40% though if they turn it into a game


Im listing Amir Garret at scoring 6 points tomorrow double from his first game where he scored 3 points.

Im giving St.Johns a GENEROUS 3 point home court advantage in this also, this is extremely GENEROUS. Should probably only be a 1/2 point.


Projection 1 ---- St.Johns 62 Providence 74------ Straight up stat projection numbers

Projection 2 ---- St.Johns 64 Providence 74------ adjusted to BCS/Good Teams ( When I say BCS I mean BCS teams that don't blow )

Moe Harkless with 17 points for St.Johns in projection 2
Vincent Council with 22 points for Providence in projection 2


The real factor in this game though is

Gods Gift vs Kadeem Batts in the paint

so the two projections I ran were both close to what I thought they would actually be when I ran them in my head because I stated at the top of this write up that if I saw a total of 135 or below the OVER would be the play, but in reality I'm not seeing much of an edge playing the OVER/UNDER in this game. That total is pretty much right where its set at.

Just read over my post and this game will be up tempo. St.Johns will not pull what they did against Kentucky in this game because it is a HOME GAME from the RED STORM and are not going to play a slow tempo game on their own court.



25X Providence -1 @ St.Johns