Dr. Bob

Best Bets
Rotation #152 Boise State (-15) 2-Stars at -17 or less, 3-Stars at -14 or less.
Rotation #162 Penn State (+3 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation # 169 Florida (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +1 or more.

Strong Opinions
Rotation #142 Air Force (-16 1/2) Strong Opinion at -17 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -14 or less.
Rotation #144 BYU (-20 1/2) Strong Opinion at -21 or less.
Rotation #158 Army (+7 1/2) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.
Rotation #196 New Mexico State (+7) Strong Opinion at +7 or more.

Analysis of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions are below (and on the site) and the analysis of the Thursday night games is in the Free Analysis section. I will do my best to get the Free Analysis for Saturday's games up as early on Friday as possible, but some may not be up until the middle of the night on Saturday morning.
3 Star Best Bet
***Florida (+3.5) 24 SOUTH CAROLINA 16
12-Nov-2011 9:00AM Pacific
South Carolina has one of the best defensive units in the nation and that unit actually didn’t play that poorly in last week’s 28-44 loss at Arkansas, as holding the Razorbacks to 6.0 yards per play is 0.8 yppl better than what an average team would allow the Hogs in their own stadium. For the season the Gamecocks are 1.4 yppl better than average defensively, but the offense is a real issue with a horrible Connor Shaw at quarterback and the rushing attack taking a bit of a hit without star RB Marcus Lattimore. Lattimore’s 5.0 ypr was not that impressive, but it’s better than the 4.6 ypr that new starter Brandon Wilds is averaging and Conner Shaw is not the runner that former starting quarterback Stephen Garcia was (Garcia has 192 yards on 28 running plays). South Carolina’s rushing attack is 0.1 yards per rushing play worse than average and the Gamecocks don’t figure to have much success running against a very good Florida defensive front that’s yielded just 4.1 yprp to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yprp against an average defense.

Without a rushing attack to depend on, Conner Shaw will be forced to throw on more 3rd and long situations than usual and he’s really struggled the last three weeks (3.8 yards per pass play) against decent defensive teams after playing well in his first start against a bad Kentucky defense. Shaw has averaged just 4.6 yppp on 136 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Gators’ defense is 0.9 yppp better than average, so I expect Shaw to have his 4th straight bad game. Overall, South Carolina’s offense is 0.8 yards per play worse than average on a national scale while Florida’s defense is 0.9 yppl better than average. The Gators have a huge 1.7 yppl advantage over the Gamecocks’ struggling offense, which has averaged just 4.1 yppl the last 3 games and is projected to average just 4.0 yppl today.

South Carolina is still a pretty good team because their defense is 1.4 yppl better than average (so they are 0.6 yppl better than average overall from the line of scrimmage), but Florida is 0.8 yppl better than average offensively with John Brantley back at quarterback and having Jeff Demps and his 7.1 ypr average back healthy is also a plus (he ran for 158 yards at 6.9 ypr last week against a good Vanderbilt defense). The Gators are at a 0.6 yppl disadvantage when they have the ball, but that’s a lot better than the 1.7 yppl disadvantage that South Carolina’s offense is facing.

My math model projects 290 yards at 4.8 yppl for Florida and 276 yards at 4.0 yppl for South Carolina and the Gators have vastly superior special teams. Florida hasn’t looked as good as they are because of injuries to Brantley and Demps and because of a -9 in turnover margin, but Brantley is not turnover prone (just 3 interceptions on 160 passes) and it’s not likely that a defense as good as the Gators will continue to force just 0.9 turnovers per game (the national average is 1.8). I think Florida should be favored by at least 3 points and South Carolina applies to a negative 86-169-1 ATS situation that is based on last week’s ugly loss to Arkansas. I’ll take Florida in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog and for 2-Stars at pick or -1.

2 Star Best Bet
**PENN ST. (+3.5) 24 Nebraska 20
12-Nov-2011 9:00AM Pacific
It appears as if people think that Penn State’s off the field issues will lead to a worse than normal effort from the Nittany Lions on the field, as the line on this game has gone from 2 ½ points to 3 ½ and 4 points. I don’t see that being the case, as Penn State had last week off to prepare for this game, so this week’s distractions should affect how prepared the team is for the Cornhuskers. I also think that the Penn State players would be emotionally charged to restore some pride to their school, and a few have been quoted as saying they feel extra motivation this week and that practices have been full of energy. As far as I’m concerned the line move over a key number of 3 points is a bonus, as Penn State applies to a very good 43-7-1 ATS subset of a 100-38-3 ATS home dog off a bye angle and Nebraska’s upset loss to Northwestern last week sets them up in a negative 29-77-4 ATS situation this week. Also, losing as a home favorite is not a good omen for a team laying points on the road the next week. Teams with a win percentage of .500 or better that lost as a conference home favorite of 4 points or more the previous week are just 65-96-9 ATS as road favorites the next week.

In addition to the strong situations and the free line value, the Nittany Lions are a better team than Nebraska from the line of scrimmage. Penn State’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 5.2 yards per play and 19.4 points per game, but that unit is better now that Matt McGloin is the starting quarterback and getting nearly all the snaps. Former starter Rob Bolden has completed only 42% of his passes against Division 1A competition while averaging a pathetic 4.9 yards per pass play. McGloin, meanwhile, has averaged a healthy 6.8 yppp and his numbers are even better with star WR Derek Moye playing. Moye missed 2 ½ games, but returned to the field in the 2nd half before the bye week and he should be close to his old form after getting another 2 weeks to heal. The Nittany Lions’ offense is still just average with McGloin at quarterback, but that’s an improvement over what they’ve been most of the season with Bolden starting. Nebraska’s defense is only 0.4 yards per play better than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defense), so the Cornhuskers only have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Penn State’s offense with McGloin at quarterback.

Penn State’s advantage when Nebraska has the ball is more significant, as the Nittany Lions have been 1.3 yppl better than average defensively this season (4.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) while allowing just 13.1 points in 8 games against Division 1A opponents. Nebraska’s offense is 0.5 yppl better than average (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl) but the Huskers are at a 0.8 yppl disadvantage when they have the ball. Nebraska averaged just 4.1 yppl at home against Michigan State defense, the only other great defense the Huskers have faced. Penn State’s stop unit, meanwhile, has been just as good against the 3 good offensive teams that they’ve faced, holding Alabama, Iowa, and Northwestern to a combined 4.8 yppl when those 3 teams would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defensive team (so, they are also 1.3 yppl better than average against good offenses).

While Nebraska’s defense has a 0.4 yppl advantage over Penn State’s mediocre attack, the Nittany Lions have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Huskers’ attack and my math model projects 362 yards at 5.2 yppl for Penn State and 328 yards at 4.6 yppl for Nebraska in this game. Nebraska does have an advantage in special teams but my math favors Penn State by 2 points in this game – so there is value even without the favorable situations. Penn State’s not getting a lot of respect, but the Nittany Lions’ only loss of the season was to Alabama. I suppose it’s a bit risky taking Penn State given all that’s going on off the field, but the Lions are just as likely to be fired up and to channel their emotions into a good effort as they are to be distracted and play poorly. I think the events that are unfolding in College Station will unite the team and a very good effort will be the result. By the way, Penn State is just 2-6-1 ATS this season, but they are 2-0 ATS when I’ve made them a Best Bet (against Iowa and Northwestern). Let’s hope it’s 3-0 after this emotional game. I’ll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

2 Star Best Bet
**BOISE ST. (-15.0) 38 TCU 14
12-Nov-2011 12:30PM Pacific
This is Boise State’s chance to impress pollsters and move up a bit in the computer models, as the Broncos face a well regarded TCU team. The Horned Frogs, however, aren’t nearly as good defensively as recent editions have been and Boise State’s under appreciated defense is better than a good TCU offense.

TCU is certainly good offensively, as the Horned Frogs have averaged 6.5 yards per play and 39.9 points per game against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl and 32.1 points to an average team. Boise State, however, is 0.9 yppl better than average defensively (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defense) and the Broncos are even better against good offensive teams, as they often let up with big leads against bad teams. Excluding Air Force, which runs an opinion attack, Boise has allowed just 4.9 yppl to good offensive teams (Georgia, Toledo, Tulsa, Nevada, and Fresno) that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average team. So, the Broncos are 1.2 yppl better than average defensively when facing good offensive teams and they gave up an average of just 14.8 points in those games. Boise’s offense is better than TCU’s offense and the Broncos play particularly good at home, where they are 65% ATS all time and 31-8-1 ATS in conference games when not favored by 36 points or more.

While TCU’s offense should be kept in check, the Boise offense should be able to score close to their 44 point average against a pretty mediocre TCU defense that’s given up 5.5 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team. TCU has faced two good offensive teams this season (excluding the 6.5 yppl they gave up to the Air Force option) and the Horned Frogs gave up 8.8 yppl and 50 points in a loss to Baylor and 6.7 yppl and 40 points in a home loss to SMU. I expect Boise State to score a healthy number of points in this game and my math model favors the Broncos by 16 ½ points using a standard home field advantage. Boise State obviously has a stronger than normal advantage on the blue turf and the Broncos apply to a very strong 106-35 ATS situation and an 86-29-1 ATS home momentum situation. I’ll take Boise State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 or less.

Strong Opinion
AIR FORCE (-16.5) 45 Wyoming 23
12-Nov-2011 11:00AM Pacific
Wyoming is 5-3 straight up and 5-3 ATS and the Cowboys appear to be a decent football team on the surface. However, Wyoming is bad football team that has been out-gained 398 yards at 5.6 yards per play to 508 yards at 6.9 yppl by their 6 Division 1A opponents and Weber State (a pretty decent 1AA team). The Cowboys have an average offense and they should move the ball at a pretty good rate against an Air Force defense that’s 0.4 yppl worse than average, but how is Wyoming going to stop the Falcons’ option offense?

Air Force is a good offensive team that averages 5.5 yards per rushing play and can throw the ball when they need to (7.3 yards per pass play) and the Falcons should score with ease against a horrendously bad Wyoming defense that’s given up 275 rushing yards at 6.4 yards per rushing play to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average defense. The Cowboys are also horrible defending the pass (7.7 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.9 yppp against an average team), but their inability to defend the run is what will hurt them in this game against the Air Force option attack.

Wyoming appears to be better than they are because they’ve been a very lucky +10 in fumbles while randomly recovering 70% of all fumbles in their games (rather than the standard 50%). Air Force, meanwhile, has been a bit unlucky with fumbles, recovering just 42% of all fumbles in their games. That difference in randomness has supplied us with some line value, as my math favors Air Force by 18 points in this game and the Falcons also apply to a very good 141-60-2 ATS late season momentum situation. Wyoming, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 82-191-2 ATS situation. I’ll consider Air Force a Strong Opinion at -17 points or less and as a 2-Star Best Bet if the line goes back down to -14 points.

Strong Opinion
Army (+7.5) 24 Rutgers 26 (at New York)
12-Nov-2011 12:30PM Pacific
This game will come down to turnovers, as that has been the difference between these teams this season. Rutgers has been out-gained 4.4 yards per play to 5.5 yppl against Division 1A teams but the Scarlet Knights have managed to out-score their opponents by 3.6 points per game because they’ve run 10 more plays per game than their opponents, have good special teams and are +0.6 in turnover margin per game. Army have been out-gained 5.5 yppl to 6.4 yppl in game against Division 1A foes and they have a +9.4 play advantage, but the Black Knights are -1.1 in turnover margin per game and have been out-scored by 5.9 points per game because of it.

Army is actually slightly better from the line of scrimmage and my math model projects 361 yards at 5.7 yppl for Army with starting quarterback Trent Steelman back under cent, and 350 yards at 5.4 yppl for Rutgers, which is a bit better with Chas Dodd back at quarterback. Rutgers has a pretty solid special teams advantage but turnovers will be the key to this game, as the math would only favor Rutgers by 2 points if turnovers are even. I actually think Army is more likely to be positive in turnovers since Rutgers has gotten a lot of their turnovers via the interception (1.75 per game) and Army is likely to throw the ball only 7 or 8 times in this game. Army quarterback Steelmen has thrown just 7 career interceptions on 282 passes, so the chances of throwing an interception on 7 or 8 passes in this game is low (I make it 25% that he throws an interception). Army’s turnover issues are due to the 2.1 fumbles lost per game, which is way above the national average of 0.8 lost fumbles per game. Some suspect the option offense tends to create more miscues handling the ball, but other option teams don’t fumble more than normal and Army ran the same offense last season with the same quarterback and only lost 11 fumbles in 13 games. Fumbles are 90% random in college football so it’s highly unlikely that Army will continue to lose 2 fumbles per game (I project them at 1 fumble lost in this game).

My math model actually gives Army the edge in projected turnovers because they aren’t expected to throw the ball very often and are expected to suffer just 1 lost fumble. If that is the case then Army should cover the spread in this game and I think they’re likely to cover even if they’re -1 in turnover margin. Rutgers is in a flat spot after last week’s overtime upset win over South Florida, as facing a non-conference team with a losing record is tough to get excited about in the middle of the conference schedule – especially after an upset win. Teams with winning records are just 24-54-1 ATS as a favorite after a conference upset win if they’ve been an underdog in 3 or more consecutive games – including 9-36-1 ATS if their opponent is not off 2 or more consecutive losses (Army is off 1 loss). I’ll consider Army a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
NEW MEXICO ST. (+7.0) 35 Fresno St. 37
12-Nov-2011 5:00PM Pacific
New Mexico State has covered the spread in 5 of 6 games since Matt Christian took over at quarterback and Kenny Turner took over as the main running back in week 4, with the only spread loss coming last week at Georgia in a game they were physically overwhelmed. The Aggies won’t be physically overwhelmed in this game by a soft Fresno State team with one of the worst defensive units in the nation. The Bulldogs have allowed 442 yards at 6.7 yards per play this season despite facing teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. New Mexico State has averaged 6.0 yppl or more 8 of their 9 games this season (all 6 with Christian at quarterback), including last week’s game at Georgia, and the Aggies rate at 1.0 yppl better than average offensively with Christian at quarterback (6.6 yppl in 6 games against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). The Aggies will have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points in this game.

Fresno State also shouldn’t have any trouble moving the ball, as the Bulldogs are 0.6 yppl better than average offensively while New Mexico State’s defense is 1.0 yppl worse than average. My math model projects Fresno with 514 yards at 7.1 yppl and New Mexico State with 496 yards at 8.0 yppl and this game should resemble one of those recent Tuesday night MAC games that go back and forth. Overall the math favors Fresno by just 3 ½ points and Fresno State tends to lose focus when they start losing. The Bulldogs are just 2-20 ATS in conference games following a conference loss and getting more than a touchdown with a New Mexico State team that will be able to score points looks like a solid play. I’ll consider New Mexico State a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more.

Strong Opinion
BYU (-20.5) 38 Idaho 12
12-Nov-2011 6:15PM Pacific
Idaho is coming off a come from behind upset win at San Jose State, but that win sets up the Vandals in one of my most negative situations – a 17-62-1 ATS subset of a 75-177-2 ATS letdown situation. BYU is thriving since switching to Riley Nelson at quarterback in the second half of the comeback win over Utah State in week 5 and the Cougars enter this game on a 3 game spread win streak. My math suggests that the lien on this game is fair, so I’m not going to waste time discussing match ups, but the situation is certainly strong enough that I’ll consider BYU a Strong Opinion at -21 points or less.