Al DeMarco

dime play on Green Bay as the road favorite against San Diego. As I release this selection at 9:30 PM Pacific on Saturday evening, the Packers are currently laying -5 1/2 to -6 points depending on which book I've checked here in Vegas and offshore. No need to buy any points in this contest, but at the same time don't delay thinking the public is going to jump on the Chargers and bring this price down. In fact, I think the late public money comes in on Green Bay instead so get down early.

A lot of handicappers and gamblers will actually hold a team in contempt if they lost a play involving that team the previous week. Like that team screwed them - personally - on purpose. Now San Diego just cost me a 15 dime winner on Monday night at KC when Philip Rivers couldn't handle a simple snap from center. But, trust me, that play has absolutely nothing to do with going against the Bolts today.

No, this play is all about suspension of disbelief. The gambling public still believes the Chargers can turn it around and make their usual second half-of-the-season charge. They still have faith that Rivers can turn around a miserable season that's seen him throw 11 interceptions already. They still foolishly think that the loss of Darren Sproles through free agency can be compensated for. And those that believe all of that are wrong on all three counts.

Listen, this San Diego team isn't that good defensively to make a difference. The Chargers can't stop the run (4.4 ypc yield) because big DT Luis Castillo remains out with a broken leg. They might be ranked fourth in the league defending the pass, but those are stats that just look good on paper. Truth is, they couldn't stop Matt Cassel on Monday (261 yards) and they've got a measly 13 sacks through seven games with their best pass rusher, LB Shaun Phillips, battling an injury that has him listed as doubtful today.

Green Bay has shown it can run the ball when need be this season. And if James Starks (4.5 ypc) and Ryan Grant (4.0 ypc) hit their holes it goes without saying Aaron Rodgers (71.5% completions, 20 TDs, 3 INTs) will dwarf the numbers Cassel put up in KC.

San Diego is a team that's not only struggling with a lack of talent and on-field chemistry, it's also a team that's coming back home off two straight road games it should have won only to tackle the rested Packers, who have won seven in a row off a bye, while having a short week of preparation.

In terms of trends, they mostly side with the Packers, who are on ATS runs of 7-2 on the road and 7-2 off a bye. But this game isn't decided by computers, it's decided by talent and Green Bay has the huge advantage. However, the public is buying into the Chargers being the Chargers of two years ago and that's why we're getting the defending Super Bowl Champions so cheap.

Final projected score: Green Bay 34, San Diego 20




Anthony Redd
Sunday's Card
Dime selection on the Chargers as the home underdog against the Packers. As this play is released at 4:30 am Pacific, San Diego is currently getting 5 1/2 points here in Vegas and offshore.

Dime selection on UNDER in the Broncos-Raiders game. The total is currently sitting at between 42 1/2 here in Vegas and offshore.

Dime selection on the UNDER in the Packers-Chargers game. The total is currently sitting at between 50 1/2 and 51 here in Vegas and offshore.



Bob Valentino
DIME NFL release on the Bills minus the points over the NY Jets as these teams battle it out at Ralph Wilson Stadium this afternoon. At the time I publish this selection at just after 8 am Eastern on Sunday, the consensus odds have the Bills as a 2 1/2 point favorite both in Las Vegas and overseas.


Chuck O'Brien
Dime Winner is going to be on the Pittsburgh Steelers, covering tonight's AFC North showdown against the Baltimore Ravens in an 8:25 p.m. kickoff. As I go live with this selection at 12:30 a.m. pacific, the line I am seeing with this play is the Steelers -3, -120 at a majority of the places everywhere in Las Vegas and at Offshore sports books. Though it's going to force you to lay $1.30, I want you buying a half point off the point spread and laying only -2' points with the Steelers.



Craig Davis
Dime Play on the DENVER BRONCOS as the road underdog against the Oakland Raiders. As I release this selection at 11:30 PM Eastern on Saturday night, the Broncos are between a +7 and +7 1/2 point underdog in books offshore and in Vegas. Absolutely buy the 1/2 point UP on Denver if your price is +7 (or even +6 1/2). If you already have the Broncos at +7 1/2, there's no need to buy the hook.


-DIME --- DENVER BRONCOS (ABSOLUTELY BUY THE 1/2 POINT AT +7 OR EVEN +6 1/2. AT +7 1/2 OR HIGHER YOU DO NOTHING) --- I know, I must be crazy for touting the lowly Broncos, on the road no less, against an Oakland team that has owned them as of late.

Tim Tebow has been a train wreck. They have no running game. They traded their best receiver to St. Louis. They have young, inexperienced tight ends. They have terrible defense. Why in the heck am I backing a team like this with dimes on the line?

I'm fully aware of all the issues the Broncos have. Trust me, I've been watching them all year... both from a team perspective and a fantasy football perspective. Having said that, the Broncos aren't playing a pissed off Detroit team coming in off a bye week, they're playing a banged-up Oakland team coming off a bye when they NEVER win. They are the exact opposite of Andy Reid and Philly coming off a bye. I'm not sure why, but it is what it is, and that's one of the factors playing into my decision today.

The other big factor is the fact the Raiders are just as "messy" as the Broncos with all the injuries they have. Do you mean to tell me you have more faith in Carson Palmer than you do Tim Tebow right now? Remember, when Oakland squeaked by Denver in the first meeting this year they had Jason Campbell under center. Today it's the veteran Carson Palmer who threw three picks in their last home game (a 28-0 loss to Kansas City)... and he did that in limited action --- not the whole game.

I'm not saying he's going to throw three picks today, but you can't expect him (as rusty as he is) to come in and just dominate as if this were 2006. Palmer has aged and he's in a new offense with new players. Not only that, but he's not going to have the luxury of one of the league's best RBs behind him as Darren McFadden has been ruled out for this one. Yes, I realize Michael Bush has been a serviceable backup and rookie Taiwan Jones is a burner, but when you're missing both DMC and Campbell, this offense isn't going to be nearly as proficient.

Back to Tebow. For as much crap as he gets, he still has a 75.2 QB rating and has thrown four TDs compared to one INT. You can't argue with those numbers.

He was horrible for 56 minutes vs. Miami before his impressive last-minute heroics. The bottom line is... the defense kept them close enough for Tebow to "will" his team to a win. Oakland reminds me a LOT of Miami in that they aren't flashy offensively, they don't have a QB that's going to beat you, and they hope you make mistakes. Without McFadden and Campbell, do you really see them scoring a bunch of points? Honestly folks, it's not going to take much to cover this number today, and with Tebow's ability to run, the Broncos are never out of a close game.

Denver and Oakland have had some really good games in the past. This won't be one of them. It's going to be ugly and turnover-filled. But in the end, the Broncos will play well enough to keep this thing within one score and that will get us yet another 100-dime win. The underdog is 8-3 ATS over their last 11 meetings and there's no way Oakland should be laying this many points.

One-and-only play of the day on the Denver Broncos plus the number.



Derek Mancini
Dime play on the Tennessee Titans against the Cincinnati Bengals. As I release this selection at 9 am Eastern, the line is all over the place with the Titans currently listed at anywhere from a 1' to 3 point chalk. Buy the 1/2 point insurance on the Titans only at -3, but make sure to shop around for the best price before you do that.



Dom Chambers
Dime play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover against their AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens. Checking the sports books in Las Vegas at 4 a.m., the Steelers are a between a 3 and 3 ½-point favorite. If the hook remains, you will want to buy the half-point to bring it down to three. I also have a 40 Dime play on the over for the New York Giants-New England Patriots game. The number in Las Vegas is set at 51.

ANALYSIS

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Ravens opened the season with a solid 35-7 thrashing of the Steelers. But it’s more than revenge that makes me like the Steelers in this spot.

Since that poor opening, the Steelers have gone 6-1, including winning their last four games.

The Steelers were extremely impressive in their 25-17 win over the New England Patriots last week. Now looking good against the Patriots defense may be a bit misleading. But what the Steelers did to the Patriots offense is worthy of taking note.

Patriots QB Tom Brady was 6-1 against Pittsburgh and was putting up video game-type numbers against teams this season. The Steelers held him to under 200 yards passing.

Prior to that, they dismantled Arizona and Tennessee. The Steelers are a team that is playing well right now.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is putting together an impressive season. His passer rating is 95.7. He has thrown for 2,302 yards with 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. And, if you consider the first game against the Ravens, where he thrown three INTs, he has only thrown four since that game.

Historically against the Ravens, Big Ben has done well at home. He has a 7-1 record with 15 touchdowns and a passer rating of 94.1.

On the flip side, the Ravens are a team that is showing some problems lately.

Offensively, they were inept against the Jacksonville Jaguars and last week, against the Cardinals, they turned the ball over in the first half and had to rally from a 21-point deficit to win that game. The Ravens got the win, but you can’t feel good about it.

You give the Steelers that much of a cushion and the Ravens will not be coming back. Not in Pittsburgh and not at Heinz Field.

The Ravens average 26.4 points a game, but that had gone down to 19 in their last three games. Offensively, they are struggling.

The Ravens will try to establish running back Ray Rice. The Steelers at home only allow 68 yards on the ground and 155 yards passing. I expect the Steelers defense to have a good outing here. The Steelers are going to make Raven quarterback Joe Flacco beat them.

Flacco is having his problems and will have more against the Steelers. His passer rating is 75.4. He has only eight TD passes and six INTs.

Pittsburgh is starting to get healthy as linebacker James Harrison is expected to return to the lineup. That is a significant addition.

The Steelers are playing well and are focused for this game. Look for them to pull away in the second half.

New York Giants at New England Patriots: This is a case of two teams that can score and offense will dominate this game.

The Patriots were limited last week, but returning home, expect them to return to their offensive ways. The Patriots have won 20 straight regular-season games at home.

The Patriots average 28.9 points a game and 437.1 total yards. They also give up a ton of points and yardage. They give up 22.9 points a game and 424.1 total yards.

The Giants also score plenty of points. They average 24.9 points and give up 23.4 points a game.

The Giants have gone over five of their seven games this season. Mix in the fact that the Patriots have the worst pass defense and it is a recipe for a lot of offense.

The Giants will try to pressure Brady to try and get him off his game. Brady has thrown for 2,361 yards and 18 TDs.

Both teams are going to get into at least the mid 20s or even 30s, which makes 51 very reachable.



Jeff Benton
Dime Division Rivalry Lock on the Buffalo Bills as the home favorite against the New York Jets. As I release this winner to you, Buffalo is a 2 1/2-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.

Dime bonus on San Francisco as the road favorite versus Washington. As I release this winner to you, San Francisco is the 4-point favorite over the Skins both here in Vegas and offshore.


ANALYSIS # 1

Jets coming off their bye, and coming into Buffalo with a two-game win and cover streak in their back pocket as well. Problem is, New York's little burst has come at home where they are 4-0 straight up. No question Rex Ryan's team can win in New Jersey, but they have yet to prove they can win away from home.

The Flyboys are winless on the road this season at 0-3 both straight up and against the spread, and the fact of the matter is the Jets have struggled stopping running attacks this season. Buffalo qualifies as a top-flight rushing attack, and the Bills stand at 5-2 straight up after last week's shutout of Washington in a game that was played in Toronto.

This will be the first true home game for the Bills since October 9th, and it has plenty of division standing implications. New York has won and covered the last three series meetings dating back to the 2009 season, but not today!

Buffalo is legitimate, and New York has yet to prove they can win on the road this year. I say lay the small chalk as Buffalo keeps the Jets winless on the highway for the season.


ANALYSIS # 2

The early returns in Washington looked promising, as the Redskins got themselves off to a 3-1 start. Since their bye, the 'Skins have accumulated injuries and losses (0-3 both straight up and against the spread since their bye), and their quarterback play has been woefully lacking. Rex Grossman grabbed some pine, and John Beck has not done much in his relief.

That is going to be a serious problem against the opportunistic San Francisco defense that has allowed a total of just 32-points in their last three games. No surprise the Niners have won and covered all 3 of those games. In fact, the 49ers are a play or two away from been undefeated this year. As it stands, Jim Harbaugh's team is 6-1 straight up, 6-0-1 against the spread, and they are not likely to stun their toe in this spot against the regressing Redskins.

Frank Gore continues to make life easy for Alex Smith, and of course the Niners defense chipping in with timely turnovers that make the distance to the goal line a little shorter also helps. This San Francisco team is too well-coached to lose this game against a Washington team that has too many key injuries to their personnel.

San Francisco is the play on the road today.



Matt Rivers
Absolute Blowout Game of My Carter is the Dallas Cowboys as the home favorite against the visiting Seattle Seahawks. As I type my analysis, the Cowboys are an 11-point favorite over the Seahawks.

Forget last Sunday night's 34-7 debacle in Philadelphia, that game was all set up for the Eagles to pummel the 'Pokes, and they did just that, as Philly was coming off their bye-week, and were in a must-win situation on their home turf. Thus, it is not surprising the Cowboys lost, but I have to admit I am a little surprised they were not even in the game!

That's OK, as the last time Dallas suffered a road loss, they came back to their home digs and routed St. Louis, 34-7. You can call this one "deja-vu, all over again" (Sorry, Yogi!), as Dallas will rebound from the embarrassing loss at Philadelphia with a hammer-job today versus a Seattle team that is just lost.

The Seahawks have nothing going for them at all at quarterback, as both Jackson and Whitehurst have done nothing for the better part of the season, and with Rob Ryan's defense likely to be a little prickly after last week's ass-kicking, expect the Seattle QB's to again do nothing.

Seattle has been held to a grand total of 15-points in their pair of games since their bye, and they have been held to 17-points or less in 5 of their 7 games overall this season.

True, Dallas is just 2-7 against the spread their last 9 tries as a home chalk, but one of those covers came in the St. Louis 34-7 romp that I just mentioned, and I have to believe they step up big again today after last Sunday night's fiasco in Philly.

Bomb time baby...Cowboys roll!



Steven Budin CEO
The Baltimore crew has its play on the New York Giants as the road underdog at Foxboro against New England. As I release this selection at 10:45 PM Eastern on Saturday night, I see New York is a solid +9 point pup everywhere I’ve checked in sports books in Vegas and offshore.


Note from Steve

Props going out to the Cali-Cartel as they improved to a perfect 3-0 in college football this season - all of which I've brought you - after cashing with their 2011 Oddsmakers Error Game of the Year on Arkansas (-5) in a 44-28 win over South Carolina. They said the Razorbacks should have been favored by TWICE as much as they were right on the money with their forecast.

In the NFL today I'm turning once more to the Baltimore Crew, who have been No. 1 in pro football the past four years, going 30-15-1 overall (you can find their complete record on my homepage) with a net profit of 617.5 dimes, all of which I've brought you.

Today they have their Winner # 4 out of 5, which also happens to be their 2011 Underdog Game of the Year.

They are 13-5-1 Lifetime with dime NFL plays, all of which I've brought you the past four years.

As I always make clear, I am NOT a handicapper. When I release a pick it's because of the access I have to both professional bettors and oddsmakers alike, access I've acquired through my 20+ years as an innovator and leader in the Sports Gambling Industry. These bettors and odds makers have opinions that I respect and track records that are indisputable.


Trace Adams
For Sunday in the NFL, Sunday Winner # 4 in a Row will be the Houston Texans as the home favorite against the Cleveland Browns. At the time I release this selection on Saturday night, Houston is -10 1/2-point favorites over Cleveland. Bonus Best Bet on Pittsburgh as the home chalk over the visiting Baltimore Ravens. At the time I release this selection, the Steelers are a 3 1/2-point favorite over the Ravens.

Last week Houston pushed for me as the double-digit favorite, as they dumped Jacksonville 24-14 as the 10-point choice. While I am not enamored with laying the big wood in the NFL, I feel there really isn't a choice here, as Cleveland is not a very good team at all.

The Browns are averaging just 12-points per game over their last 5 games, while the Texans have surrendered a total of 21-points in their last pair of games (both wins). Wade Phillips has made a marked difference in helming the Houston defense, and if the Browns are only going to get 12-points or so in this game, there is no way in the world the points they are getting will help them today.

This will be Cleveland's third road game the last four weeks (Stops at Oakland, and at San Francisco), and the travel they have logged to the west coast and back is not easy on a team based closer to the east coast.

The Texans have a real shot at extending to a 3-game winning streak in this spot. Gary Kubiak's team is 3-1-1 this season when giving points, while Cleveland is on a 3-10-2 spread slide since the middle of last season.

No choice here but to lay the chalk, as Houston takes this one by 2 TD's.

Sunday night bonus play is for the Steelers to gain a measure of revenge against their division-rival Baltimore.

The Ravens lit up Pittsburgh 35-7 on Week One of the season, as Baltimore forced 7 turnovers in the rout. A lot has changed since September 11th, as the Ravens have looked particularly vulnerable of late, losing at Jacksonville on that Monday night game, and falling behind lowly Arizona 24-3 last week at home before their furious rally got them the field goal win as the double-digit favorite.

Pittsburgh meanwhile has won 4 straight since their 2-2 start, and they have covered both tries this year when laying single-digits. The Men of Steel are 8-4 versus the line their last 12 as Heinz Field fave, and their home dog win last week over New England tells me that Tomlin's crew is most definitely "feeling it" right now.

No issue laying the points tonight, as Pittsburgh gets revenge for that 35-7 ass-whipping they absorbed back in Week One of the long campaign.