Originally posted on 09/16/2011:

Got longwinded.

Köln at Bayer Leverkusen: The Rhineland Derby has been been incredibly one-sided. Bayer spent 15 matches without letting Köln get a result. Köln broke it in April with a 2-0 win, at home, but this one is on Leverkusen's grounds. Köln is also going to start their fourth or fifth defense of the year already because nothing has worked, as they've allowed 2.66 a game. The attack of Schürrle, Sam, and Derdiyok will be too much for them, and Kießling is lurking on the bench. I also don't like Köln to get behind the solid defense of Bayer and Leno's great goalkeeping. Bayer's also stinging from that horrible game at Chelsea, and will follow it well. Bayer -1 is reasonable, but o3 may be a smidge too much to hope for. If I was confident in Podo against a solid Bayer squad, maybe.

Gladbach at Hamburg: This is a classic trap game. Gladbach is overperforming and Hamburg is underperforming. Gladbach, should win this, but on the injury front, they may be without de Carmago, Hanke, and young keeper ter Stegen. Drobný has been hung out to dry by his Hamburg defense, which has allowed 16 in 5. Guerrero is probably out, but Son will be back, which is a plus for Hamburg. So I like Hamburg to get a goal and Gladbach to get a couple. I think the over 2.75 is a very solid play, as well as both to score. I would lean Gladbach, just because of that Hamburg defense. Hamburg has been focusing a tonne in practise, but until I see it in a game, I don't buy it. Gladbach at ~2.0 looks nice.

Werder Bremen at Nürnberg: I also like the visitors in this match. Nürnberg has a had a strong start to the season, but have a massive injury list: Daniel Didavi, Per Nilsson, Raphael Schäfer and Patrick Rakovsky. And then you add rising star striker Tomáš Pekhart being suspended, and it looks ugly for the Franconian boys. Marin may or may not be out as playmaker for Werder, but I like his stand-in, Ekici. PK is a great play for Werder, but I would just go ahead and put it to win. I'm not a huge fan of the over, especially at three. I may play the under, but will likely leave o/u alone.

Wolfsburg at Hoffenheim: Both teams are beseiged by injuries at the moment, which makes this very tough to call. Hleb is also still not match fit. The Wolves' defense is ugly when healthy, and is hit by injuries and new additions. But they could pop in a couple. Same with Hoffenheim. Just a tough game to call between two patchwork squads. If anything, both to score and the over at 2.75 is solid odds. Midtier Bundesliga matches seem to turn into goalfests.

Augsburg at Hertha Berlin: I'm starting to really like this squad of Bayern castoffs that Hertha has. That said, I would like to see Augsburg get their first Bundesliga win. However, Hertha is flying high after beating VfB and then shocking BVB in Dortmund. Ramos and Ebert probably won't hit the field for Hertha, but Kobiashvilli is back. Still a net loss for Hertha though. Augsberg is still down Verhaegh, Ndjeng, and Bah, and just had Hain and Sinkala injured in practise. So it doesn't look good for the Bavarians. In 2.Bundesliga, Hertha had a 2-1 win at home and the game in Ausberg was a 1-1 draw. Still, with current form, I've got to like Hertha to win, at home, maybe take the -1, but I don't know if a 2 goal win is certain. And with last year's games as examples, along with recent results, over/under is too tough to call.

Mainz at Lautern: I think this may be the best matchup in the Rhinelan-Pfalz derby, but will be the toughest to call. When Lautern is involved, you typically go with the under. (4/5 were under 2.5, except the Bayern game, which was a 3-0 loss.) Mainz, however, tends to go the other way 2 of 5 under 2.5 with one 3 goal game. That said, both teams are in poor form and this is a derby game, so it could explode in goals between two teams with lots to prove to their rivals and to the Bundesliga. That said, last season, you're looking at a 2-1 Mainz victory at Mainz home ground and a 1-0 Mainz victory at Lautern. Mainz has the better squad for sure, but anything goes in a derby. I won't be touching this one, but if I did maybe small on Mainz PK or Mainz to win. Lautern needs this though.