I graduated from an SEC school and let me tell you that when two SEC teams match up, especially from the same side of the conference, you can throw out 60% of the stats cause they don't mean a thing. You basically have the equivalent of two cousins who hate each other scrapping in the back yard at a family reunion.
Case in Point: 2009 LSU at Miss St. Miss State's first year under Dan Mullen. MSU had only 4 starters return on defense, while LSU had 14 returning starters (7 on offense incl the QB, 7 on defense and were ranked #6). What happened? MSU nearly won the game at home, but 4 turnovers cost them the victory.
Let's look at last year's matchup: LSU won 29-7, but look a little deeper. Chris Relf did not play the 2H, State only trailed 12-7 in the 3Q, and State threw five interceptions, 2 of which were caught by a guy who is now gone (Patrick Peterson). LSU had to rely on 5 field goals (by a kicker who is now gone) and a bunch of turnovers to win that game in Baton Rouge.
Now, for this year's game (including injuries and suspensions) LSU returns 6 starters on offense and 7 on defense, while State returns 9 on offense (incl the QB) and 6 on defense. LSU has to travel to Starkville on a Thurs night where the fans will be ringing those cowbells until Jarrett Lee won't be able to think straight, and they'll be throwing whiskey bottles at the LSU sideline (I've seen this many times!). Miss State got caught in a look-ahead spot last week vs Auburn. They saw that Auburn barely beat Utah State, so they started looking ahead to their home game vs LSU and got stunned on the road. Don't count on that happening now! Michael Dyer carved up MSU, but LSU does not have a running back of similar caliber. And even if they did, don't think for a second that MSU is not going to game-plan the rush defense into oblivion.
Miss State is going to put every ounce of blood, sweat, preparation and pain that they can muster into this Starkville Superbowl. They've lost 11 straight to LSU, and this is their best shot. Next week Miss State has Louisiana Tech. LSU has West Virginia on the road. Now who is in the look-ahead spot?
Jarrett Lee is gimpy, and even at full strength he is not an accurate passer. Lee threw 16 INT's as a freshman, did not play much in 2009-2010. You can BANK -- BANK -- on Lee throwing at least 2 INTS in the chaotic environment he is going to face. He did not play great against a weak Oregon defense that only returned four defensive starters for that game, and were without their leading defensive player. LSU had to rely on three Oregon turnovers in Oregon's own end of the field to snatch that victory. You cannot assume that they will be that lucky vs Miss State.
Miss State has the talent to win this game outright, both on offense and defense, and proved it last year by pasting Michigan 52-14 in the Gator Bowl. Now they return their QB, all three top receivers, their leading running back (the beastly Vick Ballard who ran all over Auburn); and they return 3 of their top 5 tacklers from last year and their all-american candidate punt returner Chad Bumphis.
Last year at home Miss State lost by only 3 to the national champions (Auburn), destroyed Georgia, beat Kentucky, and lost to #13 Arkansas in OT. I see a pattern: they play ******* gangbusters at home! On the road, LSU barely beat a bad Florida team, lost to Auburn, and lost to Arkansas. And now LSU is without their 2010 QB, without their 2nd-leading receiver, and without an OL for this game.
In this SEC West grudge match, I'll take the points.
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Machine Report: LSU at Miss State
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