[arpeggiomeister]

Let me start by saying I know a lot of yahoos come out with ridiculous claims and usually come out looking like fools. I'm not going to tell you my picks are "locks", or anything like that.

I set out on a quest to make 500% betting on football this year. A couple of people said that it would be fun to watch. One suggested I post my picks. At the risk of making myself look foolish I've decided to go for it.

The system: I bet approx. 50% my bank roll. I compound my profits with each winning bet. 5 strategically placed bets will net over 500% as long as I am perfect. If I lose once it will take 2 winning bets just to get back to even. If I lose 2 in a row I am obviously doing something seriously wrong and will pull the remainder off the table and go back to the drawing board.

I follow the weakest teams in the NFL and bet against them. People may disagree with my choices of who is weakest, but it is simply a guideline for me to pick my bets. I rate all 32 teams by strength and adjust the list whenever I feel it necassary. (my list looks substantially different now then before the start of week one) The purpose is to find mismatches. I am looking for a weak team that is matching up with a strong team with a favorable point spread. I don't like spreads over -10, and will not touch anything over -16.5. I often use 10 point teasers to further my advantage. Some people don't like teasers, but they have turned losers into winners for me. I'm almost always betting on the favorites because I like to pick on weak teams, but every once in while I will take an underdog. I like TEN to beat CIN this week. I'm not putting money on it because other games look more attractive to me. The point I'm trying to make is that you should always go with your gut. If you feel wishy-washy about placing a bet you should probably avoid that game. Statistics and research are great, but I believe gut-instict trumps everything.

Week one results: I have posted my picks on different threads. I did post them before game time but I'm too lazy to try and track down which threads I posted in.

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NYG -4 straight wager

Betting on the Thursday night game gave me a big leg up. I was able to take the winnings from that game and start compounding profits on Sunday. Unfortunately the Monday night games did not fit my system so I passed. Wish I had taken GB, but I was waiting to see Aaron Rodgers in action. I was very impressed. DEN took me by surprise. I didn't have a read either way on that game which is why I sat it out, but DEN really impressed me!! I'm not ready to risk money on them but I will be very interested to see how they stack up against SD this week. If they can topple the Chargers then I will be looking to them later in the season. They face KC in week 4. Before last night I would not touch DEN vs KC but now I'm thinking this could be money in the bank.

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NE -5.5
PHI +2.5
DAL +4 in a 10 point teaser.

PHI and DAL both had great games. NE vs KC took 5 years off my life. Brady went down and changed the entire outlook on the AFC. I squeaked out of this one, but a win is a win. I'll take it. (Yikes!)

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NYG -4
NYJ -3
PHI -7.5
DAL -6 Four team parlay.

I got a 10% bonus for recharging my account and decided to risk the living crap out of it because it was free money. My free money won more money then my other two bets combined.

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My account is now up 360%. I count myself lucky because I had my eye on the Chargers and the Colts but decided to sit those games out. I dodged a couple of bullets.

That leaves two bets left. I'm going for it this week.

NO vs WAS: NO pk straight wager.

I opted for a straight wager instead of a 10 teaser this week because I feel really strong about my picks. NO vs WAS is at 13:00 est, which will give me enough time to get in on PIT vs CLE and compound my profits.

NO vs WAS: NO pk
GB vs DET: GB -3
PIT vs CLE: PIT -6

I decided to keep pushing with the parlays. I am still looking at it as free money, and not part of my regular bank roll. If I win this bet it will put me way over 500%. If this occurs I will take my 500% off the table and continue on with the remainder.

PIT vs CLE: PIT currently -6

I will bet a straight wager on this only if NO wins. I could have placed an "if bet" but I didn't think of it until afterwards. I'm still very much a rookie and am still learning about all the weapons in the arsenal.

I would never tell anybody that any bet is a "lock", but I feel really good going into week 2. I feel better about these picks than I did about week one and week one treated me well.

If I pull this off it will be the second year in a row I have made over 500%. (I made 625% last year) Last year was my first year betting. We'll see if this rookie has any magic left up his sleeve.

[dwaechte]

Not that I necessarily doubt the validity of your claim, but posting winners after the games have been finished won't get you a whole lot of cred.

I'll also point out, futilely I'm sure, that betting that much of your bankroll on each play is going to get you buried. Expecting not to lose 2 games in a row is simply ridiculous.

[Sforz]

for what it's worth arpeggiomeister and I had a discussion before week one via PM, where he did indeed make these picks before the games.

[dwaechte]

for what it's worth arpeggiomeister and I had a discussion before week one via PM, where he did indeed make these picks before the games.

Fair enough.

[arpeggiomeister]

Not that I necessarily doubt the validity of your claim, but posting winners after the games have been finished won't get you a whole lot of cred.

I'll also point out, futilely I'm sure, that betting that much of your bankroll on each play is going to get you buried. Expecting not to lose 2 games in a row is simply ridiculous.

First, I did post my winners, but they are on other people's threads. Tracking those threads down is a pain in the butt. I posted my 10 point teaser on the "Who's taking KC plus points" thread. Page 2, my 3rd post on that page, I believe. I'll let you hunt for the rest if you are so inclined.

I only post my past results here so that if I break 500% this week, which I fully expect too, people are looking at 2 bets and accusing me of being full of it. I am sure some people will anyways

Second, I understand your point about betting 50% of my bank roll. Conventional wisdom dictates that you bet no more than 2%. This is the grinder mentality. Bet on a ton of games and hope that you win 55% of the time, or more.

I am bucking conventional wisdom. My success lies in how I pick the teams. Perhaps I am making a rookie mistake but I honestly believe it is possible to pick 5 bets in a row using my approach. I have 3 under my belt already. My next two bets are already placed. Now time will tell.

I respect your opinion. Expecting not to lose 2 in a row may sound insane, and perhaps I will be eating humble pie before this is all said and done, but this is not my first time out of the gates. I have a 625% feather in my cap from last year. I had to make bold moves to achieve that. I am working a system and so far it has produced results.

[arpeggiomeister]

for what it's worth arpeggiomeister and I had a discussion before week one via PM, where he did indeed make these picks before the games.

Thanks for that.

[arpeggiomeister]

Let me reiterate I am not saying I am a super-handicapper. This is a huge experiment. I am not saying that anyone else should try this. If you are interested in my picks or my system than I strongly advise that you do your own research and form your own opinions. I am more than happy to share my information and research with anyone but I do not advise anyone to blindly follow the advice, whether it's sports betting, stocks, real estate, etc.

My tolerance for risk is much higher than most people I know. My methods are tailored to my own risk tolerance, which may not be appropriate for you. My boldness produces results. If I screw up those results will not be good but I am prepared for that.

[BadBeatBodog]

Love those three week two selections. GL

[SexyMit]

Just click on his name and go to FIND AL POST BY HIM and then read his posts.

[arpeggiomeister]

Blew it with the Saints. Put a bet on PIT -6.5 for tonight. If I win I will be up about 260%, but a serious step backwards. If I lose I'll be slightly in the red. One more loss and I will step back and re-assess my plan, but for now I am still pushing forward.

[JRS21386]

Blew it with the Saints. Put a bet on PIT -6.5 for tonight. If I win I will be up about 260%, but a serious step backwards. If I lose I'll be slightly in the red. One more loss and I will step back and re-assess my plan, but for now I am still pushing forward.

GL

[arpeggiomeister]

Looking ahead to week 3. I have my eye on:

CIN @ NYG (NYG)
MIA @ NE (NE)
OAK @ BUF (BUF)
STL @ SEA (SEA)

The lines will determine if I bet or not. Hopefully I can rebound from a dismal week 2.

[McBa1n]

Very interesting - GREAT start, but sheesh, just like me you took it on the chin this week (I was NO and Pitt, also). GL man, keep it going. Your philosiphy is similar to what I've been doing for 4 previous years. That last 2, however, I finished below .500 win %, but had winning seasons (with parlays, weighted bets, etc). Hopefully you can pick it back up next week - your early leans are all ones I have down on my card already heh, so you BETTER nail um! No - you GOTTA nail um heh. Seriously, though, GL.

[arpeggiomeister]

I'm doing two 10 point teasers this week

NE -2.5
BUF +0.5
NYG -3.5

When doing teasers I rarely like to take a line that is over -10. I made exceptions this week, hopefully it doesn't burn me. I almost took the Dolphins at +22.5 istead of NE but some chaps on this site talked me out of it. NE has the weapons and if Cassel can get in a rhythm instead of just playing it safe I can see NE tearing MIA a new sphincter.

My second teaser is

SF +6
BUF +0.5
PHI +6.5

I do not consider the Steelers to be a weak team, but Big Ben has a shoulder injury and I think the Eagles are going to destroy PIT's O line. I think we are going to see a lot of sacks today. This is a high risk play because both teams are very strong this year, but my gut tells me that PHI has the edge in this one.

Hopefully the football gods smile on me this week. Good luck to everyone today.

[arpeggiomeister]

Flopped on the first one and won the second one. I had a bit more on the second one and actually have a miscule gain, but nothing to brag about.

4-4 for the season. Not touching Monday. See ya in week 4.

[arpeggiomeister]

Week 4 is here. Week 1 was phenomenal, week 2 was dismal, and week 3 I was slightly in the black. I am being aggressive this week in an attempt to make up ground.

I have 3 bets this week:

First bet is a 10 pt teaser

BUF +2
DEN pk
SD +2.5

My second bet is a 7 pt teaser

DAL -3.5
PHI +4

My final bet is a 5 team parlay. (I mentioned that I was slightly in the black, I took my profit and put it into the parlay) These are all ML.

BUF -350
DEN -430
SD -350
PHI -165
DAL -480

Good luck to everyone this week

[dwaechte]

Well that didn't work.

But, if, as you say, this was within your risk tolerance and you were prepared for this kind of result, hopefully all is well.

Best of luck in your future wagering endeavours, however I once again urge you to reconsider your strategy.

[alexda[]]

betting all favs will kill u too better luck next time

[arpeggiomeister]

Got pasted last week. Declaring my first attempt for this season a failure. I have decided to scrape up some more money and try again

This week I am taking TEN +6.5, CHI +7, and NYG +3

[arpeggiomeister]

Well that didn't work.

But, if, as you say, this was within your risk tolerance and you were prepared for this kind of result, hopefully all is well.

Best of luck in your future wagering endeavours, however I once again urge you to reconsider your strategy.

I was fully prepared for the outcome, yes all is well.

[arpeggiomeister]

Redemption at last. C'ya next week.

[arpeggiomeister]

just took the Jets +0.5, Bears +7 and Redskins -3.5 in a 10 pt teaser. May the football gods treat you well in week 6. (and me too)

[Sforz]

arpeggiomeister good luck this week bro!!!