Winning props I've gathered after listening to several successful handicappers, scouts, analysts, and doing some research of my own. I feel pretty good about these
OVER 5 Sacks for both teams combined -115
Two great defenses and numbers back it up if you look at how many sacks each has allowed and gotten this postseason. Two QBS who like to extend the play increasing a chance of a sack by some of the best defenders in the league.
NO will the team that scores first win the game +160
In the history of the super bowl the numbers may make this seem like an accurate line but in recent super bowls the team that has scored first has not won the majority of the games. Anyone who thinks they know for certain which way this game is going is crazy. If after the first team scores you were offered the other team at +160 to win, its hard to believe you wouldn't take it.
UNDER Largest lead of the game by either team 19 points -110
Can't believe I found this online. Hard to see either team pulling away by 20 or more points, but anything is possible.
Heath Miller -21.5 receiving yards vs Andrew Quarless -115
Packers are weak against tight ends, Steelers are strong against them. Miller is a veteran Big Ben trusts, Quarless is a rookie who is low on the priority list in the GB passing game.
Mendenhall -30.5 rushing yards vs James Starks -120
Mendenhall looks great this postseason, GB is better against the pass than the run, and with backups on the Steelers O line they will try to run the ball rather than pass protect. James Starks is a downhill runner, and that doesn't set up well for him against the Steelers who shut down that type of back regularly. Only problem is if GB pulls away and PIT is forced to air it out, but the Steelers defense usually keeps it close.
OVER Big Ben 11.5 rushing yards -120
GB let up an average of 20 rushing yards a game to QBs this season. Big Ben is a mobile guy who runs occasionally and with GBs corners he should have to a few times.
Rodgers to win super bowl MVP +150
Possible, but unlikely that GB wins and he doesn't win the MVP. Great odds compared to betting the GB money line.
UNDER Hines Ward 3.5 receptions +105
Surprised to find this with a + line but I guess people see his name and think he is still a great player. Check his catch totals against top teams this year, they aren't very good. GB has possibly the best starting 2 corners in the league and I think Woodson will be on Ward.
Greg Jennings -35.5 receiving yards vs Hines Ward -115
Jennings has speed and gets open deep, Ward doesn't. Ward is facing an elite secondary, Jennings is not. Ward is on a team who will try to run the ball, Jennings is not.
NO will James Starks score a TD -160
He has one career TD. Don't get me wrong, I love watching him play. But against the steelers? How exactly does he score? He doesn't really catch passes. He may actually be a liability for the packers because he isn't great at picking up the blitz. Brandon Jackson is used on third down. Kuhn is used by the goal line. Or Rodgers runs it in himself. Or he passes to one of his 4 wrs. PIT allowed 3 rushing TDs to RBs this season.
YES will a team score 3 unanswered times -150
Always wait on this line because the public loves to pound "NO". Surprisingly this is a bet Vegas makes a lot on and YES is actually a good bet once the line is moved from where it should be.
Teaser I like, get PIT with the points and the UNDER. Reason I like it is because I feel like if one of these wins, the other should win. If the game goes over, chances are it's because the Packers pull away. I guess if you like that side of it, a pleaser with Packers minus and the OVER would make sense, but I find that unlikely.
Not terrible if your getting + money but hes only had 59 catches this season, and 5 in 2 postseason games. Guess there is always the belief that veteran steps up in a big game but weren't the last two playoff games big games?
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