[Sunde91]

An interesting spread.

The spread being so high would seem to indicate that the Bears are resting starters, but does it really? And is that info really knowable at this point? Most reports seem to say starters will play.

Bears could be playing for a 1 seed, and you would think they would prepare in a manner that assumes so. They will not rest their decision to play starters or not on whether ATL and NO win; they will be committed one way or the other. Lovie also always puts beating the Packers as a top priority, as they are rivals.

Just thinking about the most probable case that the starters play, the value would appear to be on the Bears, cause you would think it would be about 3 if that were the case, but you still have to think Vegas wouldn't throw out such a high spread without good reason.

Maybe where they figure with the spread being so high is that the Packers will jump out strong early, get a significant lead at half, and THEN the Bears throw in back-ups for 2nd half, while Packers continue to pour it on full force in a must win for the playoffs. IF this happens, then -10 is a joke and the Packers win by 21+.

Either way, the Bears probably won't be motivated, while the Packers will have everything to play for.

The +10 might be a "trap" with people jumping on it for intuitively thinking it to be too high.

[Maxlock]

Your third to last paragraph will be the what happens, ending with Packers win by 21+..although I'm predicting 30-10.

[texashighroller]

Chicago and the points

[ATP123]

philly losing last night was the best thing poss for the pack, no way will chicago risk anyone on a frozen field against a studly defensive team when it has nothing to gain

[uhuhahah]

hm.... take Chi ML.

[Maxlock]

hm.... take Chi ML.

I'll bet you 300 betpoints that GB wins straight up. If GB wins ML you pay 50 betpoints. If Chicago wins ML I pay 300 betpoints.

Deal or no deal?

[joeygats]

I'll bet you 300 betpoints that GB wins straight up. If GB wins ML you pay 50 betpoints. If Chicago wins ML I pay 300 betpoints.

Deal or no deal?

ill bet you all my points that gb covers the spread to 100 of yours. deal?

[Maxlock]

ill bet you all my points that gb covers the spread to 100 of yours. deal?

No. I'm on GB -10 myself

[thebestthereis]

typically you wanna bet against must win teams, but the bears will lay down in this game and rodgers is a great qb who will not choke. if cutler was in this position find a bank to rob and bet it all against him.

[ejfel01]

risky, but I like it...

[k13]

This line was around 5 earlier so its an obvious assumption bears won't be trying.

[JassieJames]

Hopefully the Packers come out playing in Playoff mode and take the Bears seriously.

[ramones951]

Bears coming off an emotional home win against the jets... I know they aren't going to want to get blown out in a Rivalry game but I think the packers will come out firing.

[GunShard]

Avoiding this game.

[Sunde91]

And don't forget Todd THE LEGEND Collins will be playing in that 2nd half once the starters are pulled...

Also look at how Sanchez, i.e. a garbage QB, and the 20th pass ranked Jets, shredded the Bears, passing for 270 yards and 34 points IN Chicago...I have no idea what Rodgers is going to against an unmotivated, possibly 2nd string Bears team when he already threw against them for 316 in the 1st game, and 404 last week. Brady also threw for 369 against the Bears.

Defensive wise, Packers have the 2nd ranked scoring D, 9th total D, 5th passing, and 19th Rushing. Rushing D isn't great, but Bears are 24th in rushing Offense, 27th in Passing, and are a laughable 30th out of 32 in total Offense.

If the spread goes down great, more value. If it doesn't, and public are on the Bears, it really shows you something's up with this sketchy line and a blow-out is in the works.

One last thing: the last time the Bears had clinched a first round bye, and practically had nothing to play for, was 2006, at home, last game, against the 7-8 Packers, still alive in Playoffs at the time. Packers won 26-7. In 2005, Bears also clinched a first-round bye, and played @ Vikings. Vikings won 34-10.

[whadeeb]

I think the bears will play to stop gb from making the playoffs. Pride

[korbal29]

chicago and the points is the bet GB will rest their players too by half time if beating them bad

[PlatinumBerg]

I'm leaning Chicago +10 as the play here.

[ramones951]

1st half GB would be interesting...

[hanco21]

Chicago 2nd team most likely will play the 2nd half.

[dialup_king]

Take the Bears in the first half if you think the game will be moved to 1 o'clock. The NFL made a mistake moving this to a late game. They changed a number of things with the goal that teams would play their starters more in Week 17, yet still moved this game to 4 p.m. Buccaneers and Giants organizations should be lobbying for a time change.

[Numb]

Remember what happened last time Todd Collins took the field?

[JMobile]

Oh gawd....I'm so confused!!!!!

[smarsh816]

rodgers cost me money last week im goin with him this week

[McBa1n]

Bears + the points is the play here, if anything.
Of course we won't know what Lovie will do until Sunday - but I'd be real shocked if he didn't play to win the game like any other game vs the Packers. Lovie's stated primary goal is to beat the Packers.
Not saying I know what the Bear's plan is for Sunday, I certainly don't. No one knows, yet. I think the Bears want to knock the Packers out of the playoffs bad. That alone makes me feel like they'll go full on. I'm not certain who will win the game, but I trust getting 10 points a heluva lot more than laying them in a spot like this.

I'd say best case for GB is to get up 10-14 points by the 2nd quarter. Then it's quite conceivable Lovie will rest his troops. But there's no track record to go on to believe he'd do that. Teams crumble when they lay down, usually, late in the year whilst resting players.

[pittmatt80]

I kinda think that Green Bay smashes Chicago just because they have everything on the line and will play some inspired football. Especially with a healthy Rodgers and if Chicago rests their players it wont even be close. Good Luck

[stevex]

I'm a Giants fan and no I don't think we deserve to make the playoffs AT ALL with all the stupid turnovers (most in the league) and sloppy play. With that being said a Pack loss and Giant win would make my Sunday!

[Capybara]

Green Bay all DAY. Chicago thinking about moving up a spot, or thinking about how wouldn't it be nice to knock GB out, does not even come close to GB's motivation to get into the tournament and leave no doubt!

[d2bets]

Anyone got a first half line? I'd take Bears 1st half. Packers 2nd half. They'll be close at the half and then put in backups to allow GB to run away and win by 10-14.

[ShogunRua]

I'm on Green Bay -9.5 (b +1/2) pretty large here. Even if Chicago starters play, they will not be playing with the same effort for 4 quarters that the Packers will. Aaron Rodgers will eat the Bears cover 2 alive either way though.

[Nomocino]

Rogers lights em up, he does not get the recognition he deserves, I believe he gets a couple Super Bowls before he is done possibly one this year

PACKERS 34

BEARS 10

[Snowball]

Cutler has been beat up most of the season so
you have to expect to see Todd semi-pro Collins for sure

[Stevedore]

chicago and the points is the bet GB will rest their players too by half time if beating them bad

The only way this happens is if the Bucs lose to the saints earlier and the Skins are blowing out
the Giants 31-3 or something in the 3rd quarter. Pack can back into the playoffs with a loss to the Bears if the Giants and Bucs both lose on Sunday, could happen. That is the Giants and Bucs losing.

[Stevedore]

I'm on Green Bay -9.5 (b +1/2) pretty large here. Even if Chicago starters play, they will not be playing with the same effort for 4 quarters that the Packers will. Aaron Rodgers will eat the Bears cover 2 alive either way though.

I hope you are right but the stats say otherwise. Rodgers loves to go deep and is great against the blitz but to beat the cover 2 you need to be patient and take the underneath stuff that the scheme gives up. Long drives are the norm against a cover 2 not explosive plays of 20 yards or more. This is what happened in the first game, a lot of yards going up and down the field but few points as the Pack couldn't get out of their own way. Rodgers against Bears cover 2:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/pos...wnfield-or-not

[letitburn]

typically you wanna bet against must win teams, but the bears will lay down in this game and rodgers is a great qb who will not choke. if cutler was in this position find a bank to rob and bet it all against him.

hehe at least 2 banks