[EricZ116]

Alright guys, thanks for stopping by...

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...last-week.html - last weeks picks/writeups/plays.

As always, I look forward to comments and I'd be happy to share my insight if I don't provide enough in the writeups themselves.

I am posting this on Sunday morning with a Thursday game already played, so I'm sorry about that. I won't be able to prove that I like Atlanta, so I won't go into it but don't bet against Matt Ryan at home until we are given a reason to do so.

Now, on to this weeks plays!

Houston Texans +1 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

To me, this is a no brainer. IDK if it is the square play of the year, but that doesn't stop me from thinking this is a GREAT play. Let's see here... The Texans lost to the Colts and Chargers, and all of a sudden suck? The Jaguars, regardless of beating the Colts at home, are still HORRIBLE. To me, the win vs the Colts if anything shows how little they care about anyone but the Colts. Look at the Titans beating them 30-3 in Jacksonville for further proof about how much they care to get up to play a good in division team. The Jaguars are last vs the pass... Houston has Matt Schaub and a hopefully healthy Andre Johnson. The Jags are 23rd vs the run... Houston has Arian Foster who one way or another is still producing. Since joining the AFC South, the Jaguars have beaten a fellow in division team three times in a row just once - back in 05/06 when they were actually good and the Titans were not. And here is my favorite stat of the week -
Jaguars are 1-10 ATS as home favorites since 2008. When I saw this line, I jumped all over it and got the Texans +1 (EV) I feel this is an amazing value.


Seattle Seahawks +4 @ Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks looked awful against a Giants team that has proven me wrong and is starting to emerge as the class of the NFC... So I think this week puts them in a perfect spot to rebound against an in-division foe! The Cardinals last week should have won, but they didn't... That can't help them looking forward to playing a team that they saw just got dismantled last week. Regardless of how "well" the Cardinals played last week, or how "bad" the Seahawks were last week... Is Vegas really trying to tell us the Cardinals are the better team here? Seattle is clearly better than Arizona, so give me the better team with an extra FG of cushioning, thank you. Plus, Seattle is getting back Hasselbeck and Okung so they should be looking to show to everyone (or no one, because that's probably who will be watching this game) that with their "A-squad" they are good. Seattle should win straight up, too.

St Louis Rams +6 @ San Francisco 49ers

See a common theme here? I just noticed that I'm taking in-division road dogs... Bleh. Ah well, I actually really like these games so it doesn't bother me. The 49ers haven't been good this season, what should make them 6 point favorites over a St Louis team that has looked VERY good? Do YOU trust Troy Smith to win by a TD vs the surprisingly good St Louis pass rush and defense as a whole? I certainly don't. Give me Sam Bradford and an improved defense with 6 points, thank you very much. Won't be surprised if they win straight up, either.

New England Patriots +5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This is I think the best play of the year to date. I won't go around saying GOM, GOY, century, or anything... Just I think it is the best play this year so far. Wow that was a bit redundant... Moving on...

Everyone LOVES to rag on the Patriots defense. Hey, Peyton Hillis trampled them! Not so fast guys... As I wrote up in last weeks thread, the Patriots probably weren't so focused on last weeks game because they have some tough ones coming up... And this is one of those! Let's look back a few weeks to Adrian Peterson vs the Pats. They had Randy Moss, Percy Harvin, etc to worry about... And they were able to hold Peterson to under 100 yards and under 4 YPC. Not bad.

The Steelers offensive line is having some big injury issues currently, and I'm reading from some places that their left side won't play (Their LT is on the IR, their LG hasn't been ruled out yet but will either miss the game or play very hurt) so that doesn't help their cause. Much like I love Peyton + points, I love Brady + points. Tom Brady has only lost to the Steelers once in his career (5-1). I feel like a broken record here, but I think the underdog has a good shot to win.

At the moment, those are my only plays. Here are the rest of my picks:

Falcons -1 (yeah, I know... but just for my records)
Bengals +7
- Good value to be honest... They've lost 3 straight SU, so maybe they are due for at least a cover? And they are after all the team that in my mind is the most likely to get a backdoor cover every week. I don't like playing for a backdoor cover, so I don't think I'll be playing this game this week... But I could see the Colts overlooking this game (tough games coming up) and the Bengals being inside a TD. Probably the best value of games I am not playing.
Titans -1
- I'm not buying the Dolphins being horrible at home and amazing on the road, just the way things have shaken up... But with that said, I am making a pick that seems to be going with that trend. Well, Randy Moss tends to do well in his first games with teams and the Dolphins secondary is shaky to me. Even if Randy doesn't have a big game, he'll earn his paycheck as the league's highest paid decoy. Chris Johnson will thank him dearly. Oh, and good coaches are good off byes. Jeff Fisher is a pretty good coach, no?
Vikings -1.5
- Yay! Jared Allen has woken up! And guess who he faces? The Bears shitty o-line, and the most turnover prone QB in the league! Jared Allen and crew will shake up Jay Cutler, and he'll turn the ball over a minimum of two times and the gunslinger should take care of business... By handing the ball off. Running vs the Bears and not passing? Yeah, I honestly do think that is the key to success for the Vikings.
Bills -3
- There is no way in hell that I will put money on a winless team to win by more than a FG... Nor can I advise you to do the same. But if I had to pick a side without any money on the line, just for the sake of keeping a record of my picks, give me the Bills. They are at home, and the Lions are without Stafford... If they can't win now... Well, they'd be the Bills.
Jets -3
- I had the Browns last week... One of the reasons was Mangini caring more than Belichek.. So wouldn't it make sense for me to take Mangini vs the Jets? Eh, once again, not putting money on it and wouldn't advise you to do so either... But the Jets to me are still an elite team, and the Browns can't possibly keep this up. I love Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis, I really do... But this is still the Jets defense... Maybe.
Panthers +7
- I will keep posting my pick of the Panthers every week... I liked us vs the Saints last week >_>. But seriously guys, the Panthers are good value this week! I will continue to say this until they slunk back to being a bad team - the Bucs are extremely overrated. They are not very good. Ok, so the Panthers are playing without their top RB... And their 2nd RB... And their QB... And they suck. So how is this good value? The Bucs have won by 7 points once this year, in an extremely flukey game vs the Panthers... That Carolina kind of gave away with some horrible turnovers. I really think staying inside of a TD is reasonable... We don't have many meaningful games this season, let's try and rally the troops and beat the Bucs!
Chiefs -1
- Denver is a tough place to play, no doubt. But the Chiefs play a style of game that it shouldn't matter imo. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones should have a field day against a horrible Broncos run D. If all you're doing is asking me if the Chiefs will win, I think the answer is yes.
Cowboys +14
- No chance I'm actually playing the Cowboys for money... But for the sake of making picks on every game... I think the Cowboys may have a shot to stay inside of 2 TDs in-division with a new coach. Every player is playing for their jobs, maybe they'll actually play as if that is the case?
Eagles -3
- I hate Vick with a burning passion... But the Redskins aren't very good and it seems like the Eagles are. The Eagles will want to avenge their loss to McNabb earlier in the season, and who knows maybe McNabb wants the Eagles to win too? The Redskins defense has just been awful, and Vick/McCoy will run circles around them and every now and then Vick will throw a slant to DeSean or something like that.

3 team teaser:
Texans +7, Rams +12, Pats +10.5 (did this after I got pats +5 earlier) - playing heavy

6 team parlay:
Texans +1, Titans -1, Panthers +7, Seahawks +4, Pats +4.5, Eagles ML

3 team teaser:
Bengals +13, Rams +12, Panthers +13 - playing small

2 team teaser:
Seahawks +10, Pats +10.5 - playing somewhat heavy

Confidence Rankings:
1. Patriots
2. Texans
3. Seahawks
3b. Rams
5. Panthers
6. Bengals
7. Titans
8. Vikings
9. Chiefs
10. Jets
11. Bills
12. Cowboys

Thanks for reading! Wow, if I spent this much time on my schoolwork.. Maybe I'd actually get a 4.0. Ah well, my passion is here! As always, feel free to post just to chat or pick my brain or call me out or anything! Please! Comments are my 2nd favorite thing on Sundays behind actually winning money! :P

[Goodfella10]

Good stuff Eric. Good luck today.

[EricZ116]

Game time! BOL to all!

[EricZ116]

6-6 on picks (7-5 if you give me the Bills at the final line... :P) and 2-1 on my plays. I'm not doing too bad though and if the Pats stay inside of 5 I'll be up HUGE and if 10.5 then still up a good amount. I'm up a bit now making up for some stupidity during the week (going to stop betting random in-game soccer crap and use better money management) and stick to the pigskin.

[EricZ116]

3-1 on my plays, posted record of 10-4 on my plays since joining SBR.

[L2Gunz]

Nice Job

[EricZ116]

Thanks man!

How do I get more people to come? Do I have to lie in the title about my record or say things like LOCK and such? Nobody cares about good old fashioned honesty and good long writeups? =(

[L2Gunz]

What you like tonight Eric???

[EricZ116]

I didn't play it originally, but I feel like pushing my luck a bit and I am going to be playing the Eagles -3. The Redskins run D is just awful and like I wrote earlier McCoy and Vick will run all over them. The McNabb contract might give Vick some extra fuel to light his fire because now HE wants to remind the Eagles that HE needs a contract too. Asante Samuel will shut down Santana Moss, and the rest of the Skins offense does not scare me too much. Meanwhile, the speed the Eagles have on offense should be enough to put up 4 TDs on the Skins. The Eagles will look to avenge their earlier loss, Vick wants his money, and the Redskins simply aren't very good.

[L2Gunz]

I didn't play it originally, but I feel like pushing my luck a bit and I am going to be playing the Eagles -3. The Redskins run D is just awful and like I wrote earlier McCoy and Vick will run all over them. The McNabb contract might give Vick some extra fuel to light his fire because now HE wants to remind the Eagles that HE needs a contract too. Asante Samuel will shut down Santana Moss, and the rest of the Skins offense does not scare me too much. Meanwhile, the speed the Eagles have on offense should be enough to put up 4 TDs on the Skins. The Eagles will look to avenge their earlier loss, Vick wants his money, and the Redskins simply aren't very good.

Just made me feel better about my Eagles pick!!! Thanks E... GL

[L2Gunz]

Thanks Eric!!! Keep up the good work!!! Dont worry if anyone notices you just yet..but if you keep picking winners..you will get a fan club, but mostly will be haters..but dont worry bout them..keep doing what you do!!!!! Good shit homie

[EricZ116]

Thanks man. Even though I don't seem to have them yet and can't say for sure I'd think haters is a good thing because it means you're doing something right.

4-1 in plays this week, including hitting two largely played teasers (one reduced via tie) and losing two .1 or so unit parlay/teasers.

Look forward to the next week, going home from college on Thursday so maybe it'll be less hectic and I'll look to have a thread up Wednesday with my Thursday night thoughts.