[Vinnybagadonuts]

Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.

Here's mine for tonight's Steelers/Bengals game.

Pitt -3 (1st half) 7u

Pitt o23.5 TT 5u

Pitt -5.5 (current line at Intertops) 10u

Underdog teams that win outright have to have three things on their side:

• Confidence (which leads to momentum)
• A really tough defense
• The ability to rush the ball

Let's take Cleveland for example. Cleveland played tough against several teams before beating Cincy 23-20. Then they lose by double digits to Pittsburgh.

They play New Orleans super tough on defense, and won that one in convincing fashion. Next game...beat the pants off of New England. Again, confidence, tough defense, and Peyton Hillis rushing the ball.

Now, let's look at tonight's game.

Cincy, losing four in a row to Cleveland (by 3), Tampa Bay (by 3), Atlanta (by 7), and Miami (by 8), is now expected to host the Steelers in yet another "must win game."

The "must win" game theory is completely retarded by the way (see the Bills, Panthers, Cowboys for easy reference.)

What about Cincy, home dog that they are, would lead you to believe that they can win the game outright?

Is it their confidence? Uhh...no. Losing four straight to teams that Pittsburgh has beaten this season doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

Is it their defense? See above. They've allowed 23, 24, 39, and 22 in their last four games. Their defense isn't getting it done, and that's certainly not helping their offense at all (who also isn't getting it done.)

Is it their rushing attack? No. 21st in the league in rushing going against the #1 ranked rush defense, allowing 58 ypg. No rushing attack means a lot of passes, which means little time of possession.

If the Steelers had won last week, then I would say, "maybe it could be close." They know each other well, and after all, Cincy did beat them twice last year...

But when you factor in the loss last week to NO, the revenge factor of losing two to a team they just don't lose to that often, Polamalu being back in the lineup, the pressure of needing Cincy needing a win, etc.

Sorry folks, it just doesn't add up for me.

I like the Steelers to attack early, play solid defense, and go in up by 7-11 points at the half.

The best teams can lose a game, and come back solid the next time. They don't lose four, and then decide to turn it up a notch.

I think that Pitt covers this game, and score 24 points (plus).

I wouldn't be surprised to see the total go over 41, but can also see a 27-13 game, so I'll leave that one alone.

Best of luck to those who fade or follow.

Vin

[Vinnybagadonuts]

Pitt -3 (1st half) 7u WIN

Pitt o23.5 TT 5u WIN

Pitt -5.5 (current line at Intertops) 10u WIN

A little closer than I would have cared for, but I'll take the +22u night.

I'm sure there will be those who read this and say, "Yeah but..."

All I have to say is that you can say that in almost every game.

Steelers dominated the game, and held on for the win and the cover, despite a poor fourth quarter.

I hope some folks out there made some cash.

Peace,
Vin