[EricZ116]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...k-8-picks.html

With another game still to play tonight, I'm sitting pretty this week/weekend. Regardless of the outcomes of the games, I'll be up pretty big this week... Which means I have more to play with in the NFL!!!

After a slow start to the season, I have had two great weeks in a row going 9-4 in my picks last week (3-1 on my plays) so let's see if I can keep it going and make myself (and hopefully if anyone comments/tails, YOU) some money this weekend!

First and foremost, here are my plays for tomorrow:

Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills +3

I like this game for a multitude of reasons. First of all, I still believe the Bills are better than what their record indicates. Secondly, I think the Bears are much worse than what theirs indicates. Having said that, let's look in to the actual matchup which is actually in Toronto. Although the Bills haven't covered in Toronto yet, the Bears haven't played there at all. Perhaps this may give the Bills a slight edge here. The Bills pass rush has been playing pretty well lately, and they added Shawne Merriman (don't know what impact, if any he will make...) so at the bare minimum it shows they are trying to improve and still trying to win. They can pressure Cutler in to making mistakes, and I think the Bills win here.

New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns +5

Colt McCoy was one of my favorites in college, and I am immensely happy that he has found some relative success in the NFL. Perhaps I am overreacting a bit, but this Browns team isn't THAT bad... Is it? The Patriots defense isn't very good, so I think the Browns can put up some points vs the Pats.. Plus, I'm sure this game means more to Mangini than it does Belichek, so that has to count for something. I just feel 5 points at home in a big game for them (and not so big for the Pats, playing some tough games coming up) is good enough value for me to throw a couple bucks on it.

Miami Dolphins +5 @ Baltimore Ravens

I really liked the Ravens this season, and have no reason not to continue to be impressed by them. But are my eyes deceiving me when I see the Dolphins are 5 point underdogs here? Is this the Miami Dolphins team that hasn't lost on the road this year, being given 5 points? Plus, the Dolphins only losses have been to the Steelers, Patriots, and Jets so they aren't a complete pushover. Although the Ravens are certainly an elite team, 5 points isn't much for the Dolphins to be inside of if you ask me.

San Diego Chargers -3 @ Houston Texans

The Texans just lost their superbowl on Monday night, meanwhile the Chargers are just about to get hot and get back in to the thick of things. I think the Chargers win by at least a touchdown, regardless of the injuries to their offense. Their defense WILL shut down Houston, Arian Foster will be stopped COMPLETELY against this good Chargers unit. Andre Johnson isn't fully healthy, so that's always a plus. Give me Philip Rivers here.

Arizona Cardinals +8 @ Minnesota Vikings

Explain to me what the Vikings have done that make them MORE than a TD favorites vs ANYONE? The Cardinals suck, sure, but the Vikings are simply not that good presently. Look for Larry Fitzgerald to score a TD in his hometown (ball boy for the Vikes I believe) and maybe the Cardinals step it up a bit. For me, this is simply a case of a line being too high in a game where the Vikings haven't been playing well and could definitely overlook the Cardinals completely.

Indianapolis Colts +3 @ Philadelphia Eagles

This is the easiest pick I've had to make all year. Peyton Manning being given points vs a team of mere mortals? I'm not going to stare a gift horse in the mouth, and won't over analyze this game. Maybe I hate Mike Vick a bit too much, or love Peyton Manning a bit too much... But I can't be the only person who feels that this game is some great value, right?

New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks +7

Hasselbeck being out may not be the worst thing for the Seahawks... Looking at this season and years prior, teams playing in support of their backup QB tend to play very well. I can't imagine this trend getting hurt by playing at home. Losing by more than a TD is a lot at home, especially since Seattle hasn't played too poorly this season and the Giants have to travel out west (not as bad as west moving east, but still). The Giants may overlook this beaten down Seahawks team, without their QB and coming off a huge loss... I'll take the points.

Wow, big card for me this week... Didn't anticipate this, but heck I like all of these games!

Picks in other games:

Bucs +8.5
Panthers +7 (I hate betting the Panthers, or picking them for that matter...)
Jets -5
Chiefs +1 (may play this depending how round 1 goes)
Packers -7.5
Steelers -5

Overall confidence rankings:

1. Colts
2. Dolphins (2-4 all tied)
3. Chargers
4. Cardinals
5. Browns
6. Bills
7. Seahawks

May play some parlays and such tomorrow morning, gonna look at the latest lines before the games before I do and will post.

As always, I welcome and look forward to your posts! PLEASE POST and discuss, just to chat, or to pick my brain... Whatever it is, POST!

[eastvan09]

I was leaning on the Pats. my book is at -3.5, I would buy down to -3.

my book had GB -7 and I like that for maybe 3-4 units

[JuicedUp]

GL. I like the bills as well.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I'm on the Pats -4.5 myself and watching that number go down and down. Then right before kick-off i'll laugh when the late money comes in on the Pats and maybe throw 5 more units on it. GL with the rest of the plays.

[eastvan09]

I'm pondering the Bill at +3

[beerman2619]

chargers terrible road team and alot of injuries with Gates might not even play. But good luck with your picks bro.

[EricZ116]

Bodog has the Browns at +5, and I've locked that in. At the moment, I've only locked in the Colts, Seahawks (+7, EV), Dolphins, Browns and Chargers (-3, +105) locked in. Looking for some more line movement on the others before I lock them in, as they both have -115 juice on them that I can't see getting much worse so maybe I can get them -110 or something.

By the way guys, if I wasn't a Panther fan I would play them... I honestly think we have a chance to win outright at home as we always play the Saints tough and don't have much to look forward to this season. Maybe the ML is a stretch, but +7 is pretty good value imo.

May be looking to the UNDER in the Chiefs/Raiders game, as the trends seem to be pointing heavily that these games usually go under (9 last 10) and the weather from what I'm seeing is rainy.

I might throw a couple of pennies on some parlays later, I'll keep everyone posted.

3 team teaser: Cardinals +14.5, Bucs +15.5, Colts +9.5 - 1 unit to win 1.6

2 team teaser:: Colts +9.5, Saints -.5 - 1 unit to win .83 (playing this one VERY BIG... >_>)

[EricZ116]

I've got to head out soon, so locking in some parlays right now:

Bills +3, Cards +8, Fins +5, Browns +5.5, Colts +3, Steelers -5 = about 1 to 42

Bucs +9, Jets -240 (ML), Fins +5, Seahawks +7.5, Colts +3, Packers -350 (ML), Steelers -5 = about 1 to 42

Didn't get the numbers I wanted with the Bills and Cardinals so I am NOT taking them ATS, only in these parlays/teasers.

[poochiecollins]

EricZ116, do you have a betting history before the last couple weeks?

[EricZ116]

I'm on the Pats -4.5 myself and watching that number go down and down. Then right before kick-off i'll laugh when the late money comes in on the Pats and maybe throw 5 more units on it. GL with the rest of the plays.

Sorry man...

First round of games:
3-1-1 on my final plays

4-3-1 in my early games. Parlays lost, if the Colts stay inside of 9.5 then I'm + a TON

[EricZ116]

EricZ116, do you have a betting history before the last couple weeks?

I came to the site maybe 3 weeks ago.. I went 3-4 or so the first week, 9-4 last week, and just posted what I did this week. I only started betting maybe 2 months ago, and I'm about even after some novice mistakes hurt me early.

Since posting here I guess I'm 12-8 plus whatever I do today.

[EricZ116]

BIG ******* WEEK

Well, I'm 6-4-1 in my picks, so not AMAZING... but 4-2 in my plays and MY TEASERS HIT. I am up a good amt yay Colts!