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Computer model season long thread
I'll be posting all the bets I make for this year using the model in this thread. I started betting it last week but I won't include the results here.
10-17-2010 : Noon games
Spread selections:
OAK + 7
STL + 9
KC +4
Seattle +6
TB +4.5
Detroit +10
NE -2.5
Totals selections:
Clev/Pitt o37.5
Atl/Phili u43
Sea/Chi u37.5
SD/Stl o44.5
NE/Balt u44.5
Det/NYG u45
Mia/GB o43.5
Will be back posting more as the day goes on. GL everyone
Last edited by Indecent; 10-17-10 at 11:43 AM. Reason: typos: changed NE/Balt to under, pit/cle over
Looks like it might be a rough morning for me.
Totals for the evening:
NYJ/ u43
Oak/San u41
Dal / Min u43.5
gl all
Spreads:Originally Posted by Indecent
4-1-1 +2.63u
Totals:
2 - 5 -3.18u
Week 7 Noon games:
Pit Mia ov 40.5
JAX KC o38
Cin ATL ov42.5
Wash CHI o40.5
CLE NO u44
BUF BAL o39
SAN CAR o35.5
STL TB o39
Pit -3 (2 unit)
ATL -3
Buf +12.5
Clev +12.5
Wash +3
KC -9
Carolina +115 (.5 unit)
Just updating record from last week..
Spreads:
4-2-1 +1.63u
Totals:
2 - 8 -6.18u
I fixed time of possession bug in my program this week (had no time of possession when I ran for the games last week, I'm assuming that caused the 2-8 totals record), and had an amazing start to the day, 9-4 +5 units. I have bets on the afternoon games as well (currently running) but internet sucks and I couldn't get them posted here in time so I won't count them for record keeping purposes.
Results
Spreads
This week: 5-1 +2.5
Overall: 9-3-1 +5.13
Totals
This week: 4 - 3 +.6
Overall: 6-11 -5.6
Moneyline
1-0 +.57 units
Last edited by Indecent; 10-25-10 at 03:36 AM. Reason: apparently I can't do simple math (results error)
Getting bets in early for next week.
Week 8 games:
Spreads
Det -2
KC -7 (bought .5 pt)
OAK -2
Pitt PK
Totals:
Pitt NO o43.5
Sea Oak o41.5
Stl Car o37
More to come later in the week, just jumped on some while I'm working late tonight.
Good job this week ATS. Doubt too many got anywhere near that. BOL
Thanks!Good job this week ATS. Doubt too many got anywhere near that. BOLI bet on the a lot of the later games so the day wasn't quite as good as it looks here (went 4-3 in those games but not included in record), but still great to see after the disaster with the time of possession and totals last week.
BOL to you too.
MNF 10/25
NYG +3.5
Total u45.5
Gl all
Looks like ur system agrees with my pick. Giants and over.
Season totals:
Spreads
This week: 6-1 +2.5
Overall: 10-3-1 +6
Totals
This week: 4 - 4 -.1
Overall: 6-12 -6.6
Moneyline
1-0 +.57 units
The spread lucky run continues, glad to have that even out the blow from last week.
I guess I was in a big hurry last week, the posts above should be week 7.
Week 8 Noon games:
San -2½ u41
Dallas -6.5 u43.5
Det -2 o44.5
NYJ -6 u41.5
STL -2.5 o37
Miami to win, u44
KC -7, u45
Gl all
Rest of the games:
ne -5.5 watching line, waiting to take under.
sd -5.5 tenn u45
arizona -3 o39
oak -2 o41.5
pitt pk, o43.5
Gl all
Spread 3-3 +.6
Total 5-2 +2.5
Moneyline 1-0 +.9
Another great start, although maybe a little more luck than I would like to see, can't catch breaks every week. Will update season to date after games tonight. gl all
Last edited by Indecent; 10-31-10 at 08:27 PM.
Rough afternoon for totals going 1-3 but still look will end the day up or down juice at 50%. Spreads continue to outperform expectations. I'm really glad I put in the work to program 1/3 kelly into my betting plan this year (just using units and -110 for all bets for simplicity here) it's really paying off for the spread model.Rest of the games:
ne -5.5
sd -5.5
u45
arizona -3
o39
oak -2
o41.5
Today (with pitt sunday night game pending):
Spread: 6-4 +2.3
Totals: 6-5 +.4
Moneyline 1-0 +.9 (I didn't post units, will just use -110 for simplicity)
Season to date:
Spread: 16-6-1 +8.4 (72.7%)
Totals: 12-21 -10.2 (36.3%... ouch)
Moneyline 2-0 +1.43
The totals have been my strongest play since the model began, and it isn't as bad as it appears. The 2-8 week to start the season was due to human error, but it's record would be 10-13 without including that week. If I include the week I actually bet and didn't post here, it's almost at 50% on the year with the 2-8 week 6 performance.
I guess that's my round about way of saying despite how bad the totals model looks, I have no intentions of abandoning it and have high hopes it will be able to end the year with a winning record. That would take a pretty good run to finish the last 7 weeks, but optimism can't hurt I guess.
MNF 11-1
Hou +6
u50.5
gl all
Will come back and tally up the remaining games from last week later today.
Week 9 morning games:
Buf +3
Houston +3
Carolina +6 u40.5
Arizona +7.5
Atl -10
Detroit +5.5
Balt -4.5 u41
Cleveland +4
gl all
Week 8 MNF:
Spread: 0-1 -1
Totla: 1-0 +.9
Week 9:
Spreads
4-3-1 +.6
Totals:
2-0 +1.8
Season to date:
Spread: 20-10-1 +8.4 (66.67%)
Totals: 15-21 -7.5 (41.66%... ouch)
Moneyline 2-0 +1.43
Totals had a much needed good weekend, hopefully it continues.
Last edited by Indecent; 11-12-10 at 08:31 AM.
Leans for the week, had time to run it early for a change. Haven't placed any bets on these yet, watching lines and looking into injuries, etc.
Bengals +7
Jacksonville -1
Tennessee -2
Minnesota
Browns to win
Tampa Bay -6.5
Chiefs -1
San -6
Arizona -3
Giants -13.5
Pitt -4.5
Any opinions? I don't watch the games or really follow along at all, so anything on injuries is especially helpful.
good luck on ur picks
Week 10 Bets: Noon games
Bengals +7
Jacksonville -1
Tennessee PK
Minnesota -1
Browns +3, +155 ML (.5 unit)
Tampa Bay -6.5
Decided not to touch totals this week, the numbers it spit out are too close to the spread and this season has been a little weird with so many overs covering. I'm not sure this year is playing into the strengths of my program, but I'll probably keep looking to bet them if things look right.
GL all this week everyone.
Last edited by Indecent; 11-14-10 at 11:42 AM.
I'm kinda late posting these 3:00 games, but only one started, and no one reads this anyway so who cares.
I took the leans posted above but at these lines:
Chiefs -1
San Fran -4.5
Arizona -3
Giants -12
All losers lol good luck u made a donation to your favorite charity
Nice job in early games. GL with your plays this afternoon.
Go on...
Thanks. Looks like a rough afternoon, but with proper money management a slight bump in the road. At least my props are doing pretty solid this afternoon, so that's some consolation I suppose. GLNice job in early games. GL with your plays this afternoon.
like miami too. good luck indecent
Thanks, you too.
I'm a little worried about this one since they are missing both QB's, but with the wildcat and the way my model works (in regard to passing yards) I decided it passed as a play. BOL
Anyone want to help me with my totals model? It's been right around 50% (not including the 2-8 start where I input data wrong), but with the overs covering so often this year I was afraid the model wouldn't be able to adjust to the extra scoring and haven't been betting it for the last few weeks.
Last week I ran it (but didn't bet any of the games), and it ended up predicting 10 overs and 3 unders (predicted 1 push), and went 9-2 on the day. In actuality, 10 of the 13 games went over.
Obviously this is only one week and it's tough to draw many conclusions from such a small sample size. With that said, if I believe I didn't data-mine/over-train my model, should I at least reconsider my decision not to bet these games? Most of the measurements (avg points missed, action points, etc) I used to evaluate the predicter in training are doing as well or better than previous years. The average points missed is almost .8 points lower, and it is doing very well in action points.
Any thoughts?
Last edited by Indecent; 11-21-10 at 12:00 PM.
Noon games:
Oak +7.5 o40.5
Hou +6.5 u46
Ten -7 u44
Car/Balt o37
GB +3
Cin -4 u41
Cle +2.5 o43
Ari +7.5 u45
gl all
I can tell no one reads this thread.. The GB +3 above is incorrect (obviously). My scraper put the line in wrong and I forgot to remove that from the bet list. That game has no bet on the spread or total.
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