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Week Four picks and thoughts
I'm down 17 units after three weeks, which is really dismal. Let's hope it doesn't take breaking my collarbone to kickstart my handicapping like it did last year. Without further ado, here are week four's words of wisdom....
Seattle @ St Louis
Seattle's two wins, both at home, stem from an inept performance from the still winless 49ers and a flukey win over San Diego in which the Seahawks won the turnover battle 5-2 yet still required two kickoff return TDs to win by just seven points. That don't impress me much. Meanwhile, St Louis were recording an efficient victory over a Washington outfit who
are arguably superior to the 'Hawks.
It's always going to feel hairy supporting a rookie QB (though Bradford hasn't been too far behind Hasselbeck so far) and a one-win-last-year team, especially one that granted Seattle its ONLY road win last term, but I still think the Rams should be home favourites.
12 units RAMS +1, 4 units Rams +1.5
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Washington @ Philadelphia
The media story (in other words, the thing you're going to be physically sick of hearing about by kickoff time) is the return of McNabb to Philly. My take on that is that one man's undoubted determination to stick it to his former team and its unappreciative fans is probably not enough to overcome that team's detailed knowledge of every facet of his game and personality. Advantage Philly. The Redskins rank dead last in the NFL in converting third downs. Advantage Philly. Redskins opponents have only been forced to punt twice (league lowest) through three games. Advantage Philly.
7 units EAGLES -5.5
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Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
I have a bit of a bee in my bonnet about the Steelers 'aura'. In other words, I think they get more respect than they deserve due to their fabulous achievments in the distant and recent past. So far this season, this bee in my bonnet has cost me beans in my wallet. Still, 3-0 and all, they can't pass protect (7 sacks on just 60 attempts), can't convert third downs and have got it all done with defense so far. I reckon the Ravens are better than what the Steelers have faced so far and will be a test too far for a team that has performed Herculean feats to win their first three.
5 units RAVENS +2.5
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Denver @ Tennessee
I have a big statistical red flag over supporting Denver here, but I love breaking rules - even my own. My secret numbers have the Titans performing outside sustainable norms on both sides of the ball. The Broncos seem likely to turn a vibrant passing game into points (although I'm concerned that perhaps Orton just isn't good enough in the red zone). In essence, I'm betting that the Titans' pass defense can't hold up here as well it has against the popgun attacks of Oakland and Pittsburgh.
3 units BRONCOS +6.5, 2 units BRONCOS ML at 3.25
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Detroit @ Green Bay
The Lions have performed very creditably indeed in the last two weeks against 2009 playoff teams Philly and Minnesota. I'm prepared to take a small gamble that they're capable of doing so again, especially as their pass defense is starting to look simply poor, a vast improvement on 'utterly disastreous'. This is the 'Make My Michigan Wife Proud' pick of the week.
4 units LIONS +14
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Originally Posted by Snowball
