[C-Gold]

I haven't placed any wagers yet but here's some of my thinking when looking at the card...

Home Dogs ( good historical plays)
Cleveland
St. Louis
Buffalo
Jacksonville
Oakland
Miami

Week 3 dog that won outright that is favored the following week ( good historical fade)
Atlanta ( beat NO as a dog and is favored this week)
Titans ( beat the Giants as a dog and is favored this week)

West Coast Team traveling East for a 1pm Kickoff ( great historical fade)
49ers

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1. 49ers @ Atlanta has two big trends in this game... Support for the 49ers if fading... I predicted they would NOT win the NFCW... what seemed like a gimme in most football publications, and the guy Michael David Smith from ESPN Picked the 49ers to the SB.

One of the Chief reasons why SF is overrated is their head coach is overrated, the other one is their QB is overrated, and yet another is their OC stinks... ( predictable play calling)... They fired the OC.

Mike Singeltary has all of the things that fans like...
He's a former very good player
He's a Rooney Rule Head coach
He yells and gets mad a lot

Norv Turner could be a very good play caller and an average to above average head coach ( C to B), but people hate him because he doesn't get mad when people mess up... Mike Singeltary could be a (D) head coach but at first he was a novelty because people loved seeing him break down and lose it...


So that game has a lot of trends... If I had to pick the game I'd actually go against the WC team traveling east for a 1pm game and take the 49ers and the points but I can't take that overrated team that got blown out 2 out of 3 weeks in a row and has a new play caller. Too risky.

2. I think the Bengals @ Browns is a sucker bet. I'd bet the Browns or nothing in this game...
3. I think the Houston @ Oakland game people THINK is a sucker bet but isn't... Houston wins.
4. Baltimore is going to beat Pitt... Pitt offense will have a lot of trouble... even more so than Balt vs Pitt D

5. Denver exceeded my expectations last week vs the Colts... The score board won't show it but the offense played well minus the Red Zone... The Titans D hemoraged yards vs the Giants, but a few silly mistakes and they more or less " got lucky"... The Titans offense did nothing in the game. I lean Denver and the points... I was impressed with Denver in a losing effort, and the Titans in many aspects got outplayed by the giants in a win minus some turnovers the giants created on themselves...

6. Seattle buried in the northwest is often a Jeckyle Hyde team ( good at home, horrible on the road)... Historically taking them on road is a losing prop. The Rams should be without Steven Jackson and they will most likely shield their young QB again with a simple gameplan. In all reality Seattle should easily win this game with their vet QB but who knows... it's very probable they don't wake up for the game and shit the bed and it wouldn't shock me.

8. I haven't seen the Cardinals yet, but SD should beat them by more than 8... SD hasn't played well this season, but I don't think that's indicitive of their team. I think they are a very good team that had two bad games... They should bounce back and win by more than 8, but have a lot of banged up players. I'd actually like to watch this game.

9. New England should beat Miami, but the Patriots have a very good offense ( better than last year), but their defense sucks. Ryan Fitzpatrick looked good, and the Buffalo Bills look like they put together a good gameplan to attack them as they scored 30 on the road and actually could have won that game...

That aging Patriots defense had problems vs the Wildcat... It was actually the coming out party remember? Miami had a decent offensive game last week vs the Jets and the Jets defense is better than New Englands...

I lean Patriots but it's no lock by any stretch of the imagination... If the Pats lose, it should be a high scoring game, and on MNF that's probable.

I think the Giants beat the Bears, but who knows if they cover 4

Indy is a fantastic TEASE as a 7 point favorite vs Jacksonville... ( find something to pair that against) They got murdered by the Jags in 2006, the year they won the super bowl the Jags ran all over them, but the Colts have won 4 or 5 games in a row since then, but they were all CLOSE MARGINS. The spreads were close like last time it was 3.5... but they have had close games vs Jacksonville and Houston in the near past and Houston just beat them week 1.... I'd tend to think the Colts do win and win by more than 7, but I like the much more as a tease...


So who are my leans I like this week to actually bet on????
Baltimore
Denver
Seattle
Patriots
Indy
Houston
Cleveland

Nothing is locked in, I'd like to listen to some intelligent comments/stats to change my mind for/against. I'm looking to play about 5 of those picks and toss away the weaker ones...

[NYSportsGuy210]

Love HOUSTON Texans (-3) to cover at Oakland. Arian Foster another 200 yard rushing game perhaps?

Denver will also beat Tennessee Titans outright.

Something tells me the 49ers play with a lot of pride this coming week because their season is pretty much on the line. Niners defense should force 3 or more turnovers too and keep the game close. They probably won't win but Niners (+7) is a sharp play.

[xxxvince]

49'ers looks in disarray.. but anything can happen in nfl.. guys are playing for their job

[C-Gold]

Love HOUSTON Texans (-3) to cover at Oakland. Arian Foster another 200 yard rushing game perhaps?

Denver will also beat Tennessee Titans outright.

Something tells me the 49ers play with a lot of pride this coming week because their season is pretty much on the line. Niners defense should force 3 or more turnovers too and keep the game close. They probably won't win but Niners (+7) is a sharp play.

I have the exact same ideas...

Houston might look like a trap to some, but I doube Gradkowski exploits that weak Houston Pass D... Meanwhile Schaub and the Houston O should score points...

Denver has a legit shot to win outright... They played well in a loss ( minus Red zone turnovers) vs a good team last week, the offense looked well coached and prepared, while the Titans didn't play well in a win as the Giants beat themselves...

I'd tend to think the 49ers do win, but i said from day 1 they were the most overrated team in the NFL and a team to fade...

I'm on the same page brah

[C-Gold]

You should look at Baltimore too.

[alex81]

I'm pretty much with you on all your plays. I'd recommend doing some teasers like I did if you're not sure about the spreads.

[hitman2010]

reading through it and waiting to see more thoughts and official bets form you. Nice write up.

[C-Gold]

Week 4 Plays
Cleveland Browns +3, 2.5 units
Baltimore Ravens +3 ( bought hook), 2.5 units
Seattle -2, 2.5 units
Colts -7, 2.5 units
Colts -1, San Diego -3 TEASER 2.5 units
Colts -1, Baltimore +8.5, Seattle +4, Teaser .5 units to win nearly 1.5 units

[Sirus73]

Good stuff