[taxman]

WEEK 4 LINE MOVEMENT
Four games on the Week 4 schedule have spreads that have moved by a full point. Interestingly, for three of these games, the line has moved in the opposite direction of where the money is going. These fall into the category of the “smart money” opportunities that we presented a week ago in which you go against the popular choice and side with the direction that the line is moving.
Last week, the line in the Detroit at Minnesota game jumped from 10 to11 in favor of the Vikings despite the fact that the Lions were the more popular choice. This suggested a play on the Vikings, which proved to be correct.
This week, Houston has dropped from -4 to -3 at Oakland while the Texans have garnered a vast majority of the wagering activity. We’ve seen plenty of success from home underdogs so far this season (13-7-1 ATS, 11-10 SU), plus Oakland is tied for second in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game at 260.7.
The 1-2 New York Giants have moved from -3 to -4 at home against Chicago even as the 3-0 Bears are getting the lion’s share of the betting. Chicago was lucky to get a win on Monday night against Green Bay, while New York is coming off of a 29-10 loss to Tennessee in which it outgained the Titans by a whopping 471-271 margin. Three turnovers and 11 penalties for 86 yards did not help the Giants cause either.
Finally, San Diego has gone from -9 to -8 at home against Arizona even though most of the betting public is on the Chargers. A look at the FoxSheets shows that the Cardinals have been dominant in the 10th month in recent years: Arizona is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Arizona 28.8, Opponent 18.2.
The only game for which the line has moved a full point toward the side that is getting the most action is New England (pick to -1) at Miami.

[taxman]

Just follow the smart money...if you did last week Seattle was an eye opener going from 5 to 3 by kickoff!

[GunShard]

If the public is on the Giants. Then the Bears look like the best bet from those mentioned above.
I am not convinced with the Cardinals without Kurt Warner.

[hitman2010]

Great info taxman.

[SR]

If the public is on the Giants. Then the Bears look like the best bet from those mentioned above.
I am not convinced with the Cardinals without Kurt Warner.

He says that the bears are getting the public money.

[therber2]

"The 1-2 New York Giants have moved from -3 to -4 at home against Chicago even as the 3-0 Bears are getting the lion’s share of the betting. Chicago was lucky to get a win on Monday night against Green Bay, while New York is coming off of a 29-10 loss to Tennessee in which it outgained the Titans by a whopping 471-271 margin. Three turnovers and 11 penalties for 86 yards did not help the Giants cause either"

Great point there taxman. Solid stuff. I like Washington and NYG both.

[slacker00]

Moving the line from 9 to 8 is meaningless, what's that like 2 cents in EV?

I question any "movement" in the Giants line. That line has been on 4 all week. Any movement was in the first few hours after it opened.

[thebestthereis]

If the public is on the Giants. Then the Bears look like the best bet from those mentioned above.
I am not convinced with the Cardinals without Kurt Warner.

this exactly. if you are looking at the cardinals in the past with warner in the same light as now with retards then you should be betting everything you own on the 49ers +7 this weekend because their qb is still joe montana.

[taxman]

Great info taxman.

Thanks Hitman BOL this weekend!

[JC2008]

Thanks for the info! I think Oakland wins by a field goal this weekend and I love the under in the Jets/Bills and Atlanta game.