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KC Chiefs To Win AFC West +195
Boys, don't bet this one now. Wait until after week 6 when they are 3-2. This will be around +325 by then in my opinion. They built the perfect 3-0 cushion coming into the bye week and now come into two of the three tough games on their schedule, @ Colts and @ Texans. They will be 3-2 for sure after those. But not to panic, the schedule is ridiculously easy the rest of the way. In week 7 they will rebound with a win at home against the Jags, followed by another win week 8 at home against the Bills to set them up at 5-2. Then they go @ Raiders and @ Broncos, two winnable games but let's say they split those. We are at 6-3. Then they get a win over a bad Cardinals team at home to put them at a 7-3 mark. They then go @ Seahawks and home vs Denver. They should split those putting them at 8-4 and then will go lose @ San Diego to make them 8-5. Then they go @ Rams, home vs Tennesee, and home vs Raiders. Certainly possible for them to sweep that but say they tip up making them 10-6 or 11-5 to close the year. Look @ SD. Of San Diegos schedule since they are at 1-2 right now all we have to do is find 4 losses on their schedule. Well @ Indy will give them big problems so that is one. Then they could trip up @ Cincy, @ Denver, @ Houston, or vs New England. This bet will be close enough to make +300 great value. But remember, wait until after Week 6 when they are 3-2 and San Diego is 4-2 to make your bet.
Look, Kansas City is actually for real this year. The defense is fast and loaded with young playmakers who really fit a 3-4 scheme well. The load is carried by two good running backs one who will pound it at you and one who you can't catch. They have a young tight end who seems like a real player, a big receiver who is a weapon at the goal line and a talented possession guy in Chris Chambers who brings the experience. Matt Cassel isn't as bad as he is made out to be, sure he struggles sometimes but this defense and running game will pick up a lot of his slack. They have a playmaker who can provide a spark with McCluster and a real good return game with the combo of him and Arenas. Get on this... NOT NOW.
Pittsburgh Steelers +175 to win AFC North
It is ridiculous that this team isn't favored to win the division by a -140 price or something. They clearly have shown with Troy back this defense is one of the best in the league. With a 3-0 start, Big Ben on the way, and a great home field the writing is on the wall for the Ravens and Cincy who need to focus on the Wildcard. Not to mention, Rashard Mendenhall appears to be a workhorse and the best runningback to start for Pitt since the Bus was in his prime. Go ahead, honestly tell me the Steelers can't win this week against the Ravens. Will be a tough game and I will mark it a loss for now but I think they win it. So let's say they are at 3-1 into the bye with Ben coming back. They then pick up an easy win vs Cleveland to put them 4-1. Then they hit a rough patch; @ Miami, @ New Orleans, @ Cincy, vs New England. Looking at that you have seen the Pats and Saints are vulnerable and Miami and Cincy seem to have a hard time throwing the ball. I think they pick up 2 of those wins and sit at 6-3. Then they crush Oakland at home, go to Buffalo and beat the Bills and they are 8-3 going @ the Ravens which we will call a loss but is certainly a game they can win. So 8-4 right now, they beat Cincy at home the following week and then I think they should beat the Jets in Pittsburgh to put them at 10-4. Then they close out the season with wins over Carolina and Cleveland to put them at 12-4. Now I know you may call me crazy saying they will definitley beat the Jets and win 2 of those 4 tough games but I say your crazy thinking they lose to the Ravens twice. So in all fairness, all variance accounted for they are 12-10 win team. What are the Ravens?
They sit at 2-1 heading into Pittsburgh where we gave them the win to hit 3-1. Then they get the Broncos and move to 4-1 but then have to travel to New England where the Pats avenge last years playoff blunder. So 4-2 when they host the Bills and Dolphins who they should both beat to hit 6-2. So we have to find some losses on this schedule. How about @ Texans, @ Atlanta, vs Cincy, vs Pittsburgh, and vs Saints? Think they can drop 3 of those games? I do and as I mentioned before I think the Steelers win this week. Grab some of this future, good value. Oh and yea sure the Bengals are 2-1 but Carson Palmer is terrible and they have @ Cleveland, @ Atlanta, vs Pitt, @ Indy, @ NYJ, vs Saints, @ Pitt, vs San Diego, and @ Ravens. I think they will drop atleast 5 of those. More likely 6.
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Originally Posted by slacker00
