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First Posted NFL Play of the Season
Hey guys, I usually like to take in the first week of NFL play (did the same thing for NCAAF) before I get serious with my wagers but I did have a profitable week with some smaller action plays. So far on this site I am 1-0 +1.5 Units (15-6 +37.6 Units last year) in NCAAF and 44-43 +9.251 Units in MLB. I have had winning seasons in both baseball and football posting across the street in previous years. Want to get this one out there early because this line could do anything. Usually sharp money is early and late, and this one got bumped down right away. I would assume that the public would drive this back up a bit during the middle of the week but that is no guarantee, and late money should be on the under as well.
Minnesota/Miami Under 40 -110 risking 1.65 Units to win 1.5 Units (available on several sites)
Don't really know where to start with this one... there are so many signs that point to this game landing under the total. Last week, neither offenses showed us anything impressive. Miami only put up 13 offensive points against the lowly Bills, and the Vikings could only muster 9 points against a Saints defense with an absent Darren Sharper and an injured Jonathan Vilma. Favre had arguably the best year of his career last year and if last week was any proof, it will be nearly impossible for him to duplicate that performance again this year. The absense of top WR Sidney Rice doesn't help that cause either. One thing that I feel is greatly overlooked is/was the decline of the Vikings offensive line towards the end of the season last year. Favre was only sacked once last week but this line isn't as good as people think. Peterson didn't look too impressive last week against a Saints defense that I think will struggle more this year than people would predict. The Dolphins have a solid defense and should be able to contain the Vikes offense. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense (outside of the first drive of the NFL season) looked very impressive against the high powered Saints offense. They allowed only one score in the last 58 minutes of the game and shouldn't have any more trouble with the Dolphins than with the Saints. I think Henne is overrated, even with Brandon Marshall, and the Dolphins will try to establish the run with their two backs on the road. I expect a slow pace game with a lot of ground action both ways in this one. This one will most likely stay under (I would play it down to 38).
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Originally Posted by jcubs55
