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NFC North Division Predictions and Win Totals
We're finally on to our last division breakdown, the NFC North. While Favre still hasn't announced anything officially, I'm going to go with the assumption that he'll be back in the Purple and Gold this season. Obviously if he were to retire for good we'd lower the Vikings' predictions, so keep your eyes on the news and know to watch out for that in case you're thinking of making any Viking related bets. We'll be taking all odds from Sportsbook.com once again, without further ado here's how I see the NFC North shaking out:
- Chicago Bears
- Win Line: 8
- Odds to win division: +350
The Bears slogged to a 7-9 finish in 2009, failing to live up the hype of finally adding a quality QB to the team. A big part of the problem was that Cutler's play was far from quality, as he struggled with accuracy all year and threw a whopping 26 interceptions (20 of which were on the road, remember that for 2010 games). That combined with below average wide receivers led to the Bears' ranking of 20th in yards per pass attempt, explaining some of the offensive woes. This season, despite adding Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, it's hard to see the Bears' fortunes improving much on the offensive side of the ball. The biggest difference between Cutler on the Bears and on the Broncos is that playing with Chicago, he's constantly under pressure as they have a well below average offensive line. He hasn't shown that he can make good decisions under pressure, and this coming season with no new pieces at WR or on the offensive line and learning a new system it'll probably be more of the same when it comes to turnovers. At RB the Bears did add Chester Taylor, but he'll serve a backup role to Matt Forte, who struggled in 2009 running for just 3.6 yards per carry. Running out of the I-formation was where Forte saw the most success, as he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, however this is a formation Martz rarely uses which is certainly a discouraging indication for Forte this coming year. We'll likely see an inconsistent offense out of the Bears from this season yet again.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears certainly suffered a big blow when they lost Brian Urlacher for the season in Week 1. The defense played without one of their leaders the entire season, and it showed as they were slightly below average defending the pass and the rush (17th and 19th). They certainly made one of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason though as they added DE Julius Peppers to the team, which combined with the return of Urlacher should vault this defense into possible top 10 status in each category. For this to happen though Tommie Harris will have to stay healthy, which has been a problem in years past. With the secondary remaining the same for this team, there's definitely potential for a big boost in production defensively that should help the Bears out. While I don't see this being an elite defense, it should certainly be above average. Despite the defensive improvements though, I don't see this team being able to overcome the lack of consistency on offense.
Predicted Record: 8-8
Total Play: NO PLAY
- Detroit Lions
- Win Line: 5
- Odds to win division: +1500
While the Lions only won two games in 2009, the season may be considered a success just because it was two more wins than in 2008. The offense has issues scoring points despite adding QB Matthew Stafford in the 2009 draft, and star WR Calvin Johnson battled through some injuries throughout the season as well that may have slowed him. This resulted in a dismal 5.04 yards per pass attempt mark, 28th worst in the NFL. The rushing game proved no help either as the Lions also ranked 28th there, carrying the ball for just 3.95 yards per rush attempt. Needless to say, this led to the Lions making some big changes on offense. They drafted RB Jahvid Best with the 30th overall pick, and also added WR Nate Burleson as a much needed compliment to Calvin Johnson. There have been nothing but good reports about these two newcomers this offseason, as both have looked good so far and should prove a big help to the offense. One other piece the Lions added was TE Tony Scheffler, who will also be a receiving threat for Detroit throughout the season. The Lions also upgraded their offensive line with the addition of Rob Sims, so it looks like this offense could make some noise in 2010.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions' biggest weakness was their pass defense as they ranked 31st in yards per pass attempt allowed, and last in the league in defensive passer rating. Their rushing defense was a bit better, but still below average ranking 21st in the league. The Lions took a big step to help themselves drafting DT Ndamukong Suh, who has potential to be one of the elite players in the league. Besides Suh, the Lions also upgraded their line by adding DTs Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch. As a result the Lions will have a much more solid defensive line, and likely improve upon their rank of 4th least sacks per game. In their secondary, the Lions added CB Chris Houston, an inconsistent player on the Falcons in 2009. He may offer some help, but I don't expect this to make a huge difference. Overall though this defense will take a big step forward, I feel like it can be at least an average unit. The Lions are certainly a team moving in the right direction, unfortunately their schedule does them no favors this season. This again looks like a line that's spot on, and while the Lions find themselves with more wins they still have a ways to go.
Projected Record: 5-11
Total Play: NO PLAY
- Green Bay Packers
- Win Line: 9.5
- Odds to win division: +120
When I did my Super Bowl predictions a few months ago, the Packers were a team I mistakenly left out. They are currently one of my top 5 favorites to win the Super Bowl, as I feel this could be the year it all comes together for the team. The Packers made an early exit in the playoffs in 2009, but still overcame a slow start to the season to finish 11-5. The offense threw for 6.87 yards per pass attempt, 10th best in the league, a stunning mark in my opinion given all of the issues they had at offensive line. Rodgers took over 50 sacks, yet the team had an unbelievable level of success. They also addressed this weakness by drafting Bryan Buluga in the first round, who will certainly help stop the bleeding so to speak. With all the other pieces around Rodgers still in place, and a better o-line, the sky is the limit for this Packers' offense as I expect them to be top 5 in yards per pass attempt and possibly improve slightly in their running game as well (9th in the NFL last season in yards per rush attempt).
The Packers' defense has to be considered the weaker link heading into the season as they really let the team down in the 2009 playoffs against the Cardinals. While that was an awful week, the amazing numbers they posted in their first year in a new formation can't be ignored. The pass defense was 8th in yards per pass attempt allowed, and the rushing defense was 2nd best in the league to Baltimore. The pass defense mark may have been a bit of a mirage though, as they played the 2nd easiest passing schedule in the NFL. Al Harris will be returning for them coming off of an injury, but it's very questionable how effective he'll be and if he'll help improve the unit at all. The Packers did draft Morgan Burnett to help the squad, but how big of an impact he can make remains to be seen. The loss of Aaron Kampman also can't be ignored for this defense, although he didn't really fit the 3-4 scheme and it may not ultimately impact the squad very much. The other key loss is the suspension of DE Johnny Jolly, however the Packers did draft Mike Neal and seem to have other depth at the position that should keep the loss from hurting too much. Due to a tougher schedule this season, the Packers' defensive numbers will take a step back. However, this team has the offense to win in a shootout with anyone, and I believe that they'll do just that, winning the NFC North in the process. Again, the tough schedule will limit the number of wins, however the Packers could be very dangerous for a potential playoff run.
Projected Record: 10-6
Total Play: OVER 9.5
- Minnesota Vikings
- Win Line: 9.5
- Odds to win division: +140
The Vikings know they let an opportunity slip through their fingers in 2009 as they probably should have been Super Bowl champions. However, they choked away their game against the Saints in the conference finals, turning the ball over five times and losing by just a field goal. It still was a great season for the Vikings though, as their offense was very good and yet still had room for improvement. Favre led the team while limiting his turnovers, and even though it's unlikely he does that again he'll still give the Vikings enough offensive production to make up for it. Adrian Peterson struggled with fumbles at times, and didn't seem like quite the same running back as years past as the Vikings only posted a 4.11 yards per carry mark, 22nd in the NFL. I think he could bounce back behind an elite offensive line this season though, and the Vikings offense will once again be explosive and dangerous every week.
The Vikings' defensive line was among the elite in 2009, and will be once again in 2010 as they return all of their major pieces. The unit was 7th in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowed, and should be top 8 once again this coming season. The pass defense was a bit more concerning however, ranking 19th in the NFL despite playing the easiest schedule against passing teams. Antoine Winfield struggled through a broken foot last season though which definitely limited the unit, and if healthy this season should offer an immediate boost. Cedric Griffin's status is in doubt however coming off of a torn ACL, so the team may have to learn to live without him for a while. The Vikings also drafted Chris Cook for depth in the secondary this year, so the pass defense will likely be a bit better than in 2009. However, it does remain a point of concern for me. The other point of concern I have regarding this team is their poor play on the road last season. There's only one road game on their schedule that could be considered easy this coming season (Against the Lions), so a 4-4 mark on the road or worse wouldn't surprise me at all. I think the Vikings take a step back this year, finishing with a 10-6 mark as well. It'll come down to tiebreakers with the Packers possibly, so pick this team to win the division as well and enjoy a small profit if you like. I'll stick with my gut and go with the Packers though, but I do like the Vikings to go over their win total.
Projected Record: 10-6
Totals Play: OVER 9.5
2010 Projected NFC North Standings:
Packers: 10-6
Vikings: 10-6
Bears: 8-8
Lions: 5-11
NFC North Plays:
Packers to win division: +120
Packers OVER 9.5
Vikings OVER 9.5
A couple notes:
- Should I choose to do this again next year I'll be sure to include odds along with win total bets. I made a big mistake not doing so this year, but I'll learn from it.
- I'm taking a win off of the Steelers' projected record in the AFC North, the loss of Colon will hurt them and total predicted wins now adds up to 256 across the league
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Originally Posted by johnson
