its impossible to measure exactly how much and how hard the starters will play for teams that have clinched a playoff spot and have nothing more to play for... you can see I have taken the approach of going with the better team and the points most often even though the starters may be on the bench
Hey Furt .. i like the picks. I have been following your threads for the past month of so. Seems like you usually have a good week. I really like the detailed explanations that you've provided in the past. If you could, throw down some quick notes on your picks.
Do you always bet every game ? Seems to me like this weekend might be better off with just a game or two.
Also, what is the ratio from regular bet to big bet ?
Which coaches do you think are more likely to rest their starters?? I certainly think Dungy is one of them. McCarthy maybe, but I don't think Del Rio and Phillips will.
Either way , won't be long unitl we find out.
(btw. any over/under you like???)
1st string- thanks for the comments. if i get a chance later today i will add some quick notes (sorry, the week has gotten hectic with xmas and all). also, there has been some significant line movement to discuss.
i usually bet on my best bets. i'm up for the season but have leveled off. sometimes i bet on all four, sometimes just a couple.
i usually keep it pretty simple and lay 100 on each best bet. sometimes though, if i don't think i have a great read i will only bet 50 or not at all. if a game is standing out to me i'll lay as much as 200. in the future i will attempt to mark which plays i consider the strongest.
As far as who plays this weekend, its going to be tough. As I stated, I picked a lot of the good teams (generally getting a lot of points due like the colts and cowboys) even though they will, in all likelihood, be resting their starters. we'll see how this plays out. the evidence from last years week 17, if i remember correctly, would support this strategy. But motivation is a huge factor come week 17 and not just for the teams in the playoffs. There are teams that will be playing hard to get to 8-8 or 9-7 as a winning versus a losing season can be a great motivating factor. So I look for the Eagle to be playing tough (and the Bills for that matter). For some of the younger teams it will be a matter of playing the future stars. It certainly makes picking week 17 an question mark.
I agree that Dungy is definitely one to sit his stars. I am almost positive we will not see Romo or Manning for any more than a series or two and probably not at all. It will be interesting to see what the colts/cowboys/patriots/packers do with their starting offense lines. I think that could be the difference that makes or breaks these picks. the colts have shown the ability to insert "running back B"(or C or D) and have them run for 100+ and Sorgi has played well in a backup role when he gets an opportunity.
I doubt we'll see T.O play for the 'boys even if he's healthy. As a whole I think you'll see very limited action for the so-called "stars" but the difference will be made on the line.
Okay well gotta run to work but I will try to get on later to discuss the individual games
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