Once again I fall victim to the rookie curse of playing too many games, but as I'm winning more than I am losing, I guess I'll continue to deal with it for now. Hope everyone can find a few winners on Sunday.
Two units
Washington -6. There are so many reasons to take the Redskins. The emotional nature of the game given the loss of Sean Taylor; offensively-challenged Buffalo without Marshawn Lynch; the hot hand of Jason Campbell going against the 29th ranked pass defence in the league. Obviously the emotional factor is a wild card, but Washington should have beaten Tampa last week, while Buffalo is looking tired after a four-game win streak. Even in all their wins, five total, Buffalo has only topped 20 points one time.
San Diego -3 (bought a point when it opened at -4). The Chargers are just 1-4 on the road, but three of those losses come against Green Bay (10-2), New England (12-0), and Jacksonville (8-3) who have just three home field losses between them. The Chargers won't be lulled to sleep by a divisional opponent, especially one who beat them so handily in Week 4. The revenge factor is key, as is the wanning mystique of Arrowhead.
Denver -3 (bought half a point). I'm not a big believer in the Broncos, but have even less faith in the Raiders, who can relax after snapping their losing skid last week. Denver has won 8 of the last 9 with Oakland, still have hopes of catching San Diego in the division, and have scored 95 points in their last three games, two of those on the road.
St. Louis -3. The Rams can feel better, two wins after an 0-8 start, but they still haven't won at home, and will have the feeling of unfinished business after the final-play debacle against the Seahawks. Steven Jackson gets to run against the 26th ranked run defence, and the Falcons won't be able to keep up.
New England -20.5. I don't buy the theory that Phillie gave others ideas on how to beat the Patriots. They only made them mad. The Ravens offence doesn't have the personnel of the Eagles, and will be lucky to put up more than 13 points. That means NE only needs to score 34 . . . one week after the Chargers hung 32 on the "vaunted" Baltimore defence. The Ravens have, in fact, surrendered more than 30 points in three of their last four.
New York Giants -1. Little bit worried here. Made the bet early in the week thinking the line would move. I lost big on the Giants last week, but can't believe Eli can be as bad as he was twice in a row. I'm hoping the Giants defence, league leaders in sacks, can force Grossman into mistakes, and that the New York offence can regain their footing.
One unit
Indianapolis -6.5. I understand all the hype on the Jaguars, but Peyton Manning will be going against the 28th ranked pass defence in the league, and the Colts have had 10 days to prepare for this divisional confrontation. Indy has allowed just 15.6 points a game, so I'm going to go against the hype.
Cleveland -1. Derek Anderson is healthier than Kurt Warner, and the Cardinals defence is also hurting. Cleveland has scored 24 points in all but two games this season, and Arizona has given up 20 in all but two.
Philadelphia -3. Seattle is playing their second straight on the road, and doesn't travel well to begin with, especially going back east. Phillie needs this game more, and may have new life with Feeley under centre. The Eagles may also remember the 42-0 homefield loss hung on them by Seattle two years ago.
i like your thinking on these and how you pick some nice spots to buy points. i can't go against my seahawks although they are not a good road team. when you look at the starting qb's feeley vs hassleback you have to give that edge to seattle
thanks guys. Good luck to all of you too. Went a little heavy on the favourites. Just 2-3 in the morning, but 2-1 on two bet games, no can still post a profit.
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Beaneaters Week 13 (51-36 ATS)
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