[bigboydan]

While I was capping all the prop bets on tonights Packers/Cowboys game, I came across this one at TheGreek that I feel has some value.

What will happen first for Brett Favre

195 Throw a TD pass -150
196 Throw an Interception +120

As we all know already the Packers seem to be throwing the ball almost every down this year. My thoughts are that they Dallas defense will be up for the challenge tonight, and can shut down Farve for the most part. I feel +120 on him throwing a pick before he throws a TD is a pretty solid wager.


Before I place my wager I would like to get you guys thoughts on this one if I could please.

[tryintogetpaid]

I say TD. Last year I would have said a Pick-6 before anything but Favre has really honed down his game, and I do not think that anyone in the Dallas Secondary (besides Newman) can make a play on Favre on D.

[SBR Lou]

He's making better decisions this year, so I think it might be rolling the dice a little too much for him to throw one at the wrong uniform so early on.

[Doc JS]

Dan,

crazl is correct. Brett is making better decisions this season but he could come out a little "geeked up" for the big game and throw an early pick. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

[travismcilrath]

he will throw a pick just not right away i would bet the other way

[roasthawg]

i don't like that at all, 22tds against 8 pics...the only thing keeping me off this bet is that dallas is 2nd in the league in pics, i'd imagine most of those come in the 2nd half when they're up big though...it's a no bet for me.

[etothep]

not to mention the fact gb is going more & more with a 5wr spread package, which will expose the lack of depth in the dal secondary...i see them breaking this package out on the first drive & rather frequently afterwards

see gb winning it outright (due to not turning it over)

[tryintogetpaid]

I agree etothep -- the GB 5 wide set pushes teams to have to use one or two DBs that they do not feel comfortable using. And with GB receivers, all of them can catch and run routes well -- and bad DBs can not defend.

[Teasem]

Dan,

Not a big fan of this bet, he could easily throw a touch before the pic, he's having an amazing season..............still think the cowboys win this one.

[SBR Lou]

Thing with him is, he doesn't normally throw the boneheaded interception to start the game. I know he has before, but with much greater frequency he throws the boneheaded interception when they are down big, and he's trying to do too much.

This year, with more than just one go-to guy, he's able to be smarter with the football. He really is a "gunslinger", because the guy is accurate and still has a great arm. He gets picked off when he's careless with the football. Mike McCarthy has obviously done well with him at this point in his career, and slowed the game down for Brett.

I'd be very surprised if he comes out early and does something stupid.

[roasthawg]

not to mention the fact gb is going more & more with a 5wr spread package, which will expose the lack of depth in the dal secondary...i see them breaking this package out on the first drive & rather frequently afterwards

see gb winning it outright (due to not turning it over)

i'm a big fan of the spread coming to the nfl, people said it wouldn't work but gb is proving them wrong...this offense is gonna put a premium on wrs now.

[biggamer3]

BBD, i dont want to be an echo of what everyone said, but i thought the TD one was the obvious bet here if you take any of them

Brett usually makes mistakes when he is behind and tries to force things

Early in the game he will play smart and avoid the pick

[RageWizard]

I don't like this bet at all. I think that Farve will only bring you the money if Dallas gets up big and Farve is force to put the ball in tough places. He hasn't had to do that all year, hence his low interception rate as compared to the past couple of years. You could get a lucky bounce off of somebodys face mask or something, but for only +120 I don't like the payoff.

[Teasem]

As a matter of fact, if you really think he'll throw the pick, lay some wood and take -200 that he'll throw one at some point during the game, this goes with the old adage, bet the bet and not the spread

[pokernut9999]

From all the comments it sounds like a lock to me. Interception before TD.

[Mike the Greek]

While I was capping all the prop bets on tonights Packers/Cowboys game, I came across this one at TheGreek that I feel has some value.



As we all know already the Packers seem to be throwing the ball almost every down this year. My thoughts are that they Dallas defense will be up for the challenge tonight, and can shut down Farve for the most part. I feel +120 on him throwing a pick before he throws a TD is a pretty solid wager.


Before I place my wager I would like to get you guys thoughts on this one if I could please.

TD! Brett and GB will pick apart the poor Dallas secondary and show them how to play football

[Crayzee]

any prop that is +$$ is worth a shot in my opinion

[bigboydan]

any prop that is +$$ is worth a shot in my opinion

I don't think I'd go that far Crayzee, but I do believe that their is value in this one though.

[outdrawed]

You're betting a guy that has a TD/INT ratio of 22:8 going up against a defense with a TD/INT ratio of 15:16 is going to throw a INT first 45% of the time? I wouldn't bet it.

[Ganchrow]

any prop that is +$$ is worth a shot in my opinion

I'd suspect that that's not an advantage play long-term.

[outdrawed]

some maybe useless numbers

Favre has thrown a TD before an INT in 7/11 games this year. He's thrown an INT first in the other 4.

Dallas has allowed a TD before and INT in 4/11 games this year. They had an interception before allowing a TD in 6/11 games, and against Minnesota neither had an INT or gave up a TD.

[SBR Lou]

wtg dan

[pokernut9999]

From all the comments it sounds like a lock to me. Interception before TD.

[bigboydan]

Thanks fellas

It was looking bad on that packers drive, but they held'um to a field goal thank god.