Sides
Eagles +3
I have no problem backing an underachieving team when they are out of favor and coming with value. After another prime time meltdown and all the news circumventing the Reid household, public perception appears to be sticking a fork in the Eagles season. With the talent and veteran leadership supporting the Eagles, I am not too quick to agree on such a notion. Quietly, the Redskins are regressing. After their blowout victory against the Lions, they have looked like a below average team, losing to the Packers, sneaking by the Cardinals at home, being embarrassed by the Patriots, and having to win in overtime against the Jets and their new quarterback. The Redskins bring one of the biggest “drop-off” units in football to this game, as their defense has regressed as fast as any unit in the league of late.
The Redskins have shown the ability to be run against despite not facing any top tier running games in recent weeks. Sunday will be a test they should have problems passing, as Westbrook and the Eagles run blocking should have the upper hand once again against the Redskins. Unlike recent years, the Eagles success has become heavily dependent on their run game, as McNaab and the Eagles receivers appear no longer capable of leading an offense to victory on a consistent basis. This should allow the Eagles to focus on their greatest weapon (they have the propensity to not utilize his skills enough) with success. The Redskins will also need to improve containing him in their passing game to force them to rely on their underachieving receivers. Allowing 14 catches last time out to Westbrook calls far a drastic improvement.
The Redskins offense has also quietly experienced some regression in recent weeks. Campbell appears to have taken a step backwards as teams are capitalizing on his inefficiencies, while Portis’s game to game inconsistencies leaves a lot to be desired. With the Eagles having the upper hand against the Redskins run game, pressure will be on Campbell to make things happen. As a favorite, betting on the execution of such a notion should be second guessed.
Intangibles and fundamentals both favor the Eagles. The fundamental difference in this game should be the disparity of productivity between both teams running games. The intangible difference should be due to the revenge factor (losing their last three against the Redskins) and bounce back spot from last weeks meltdown.
Raiders +3.5
This line is a perfect example of anchoring bias, as last years Bears team continues to bid up their market price to levels that are simply not warranted. They have been dead money all through the first half of the season, where they managed to cover just two spreads, yet the market continues to price them with last year in mind and an expected turnaround being imminent, despite showing no signs of such. I will gladly bet against them until the market corrects itself with this team, even if it means having to bet on the Raiders.
The Bears offense has not improved much with Griese under center. Last year, their running game was efficient enough to only need a quarterback that simply avoids mistakes, and allow their special teams and defense to win games for them. This year however, it is a different story, as the poor play of Benson and the Bears run blocking demands more productivity out of the Bears quarterback. This variable increases the Raiders chances substantially, as their Achilles heal has been their run defense, a facet that should not be exposed by what might be the worst running game in the league. This should once again put pressure on the poor playing Griese to make things happen with his arm, and attack the Raiders biggest strength, their passing game. Expect the Bears to continue to falter on offense.
The Bears defense has been a bigger disappointment than their offense. Not because it has been performing as poorly, rather it has been underachieving at a much higher rate. Injuries will continue to prevent this unit from returning to par, which should allow a dormant Raiders offense to do just enough to keep this game within reach, and possibly win it outright.
Simply put, the Bears don’t warrant being a favorite on the road against anyone right now. Until they show some signs of a turnaround, I will assume expecting such is wishful thinking and a continual profitable go-against notion.
Totals
Den/KC Over 37.5
The Broncos have provided the marketplace with two intriguing opportunities throughout the season- being a good go-against team and being a good team to enter an Over position on. However, it is the Over angle that I feel will continue to provide more profitable opportunities going forward.
In my opinion, there exists an anchoring bias on the Broncos defense, as past success and big name players continue to make public perception believe that they have a lot of upward mobility. However, it is an aging and undersized defense that has shown no signs of improving. It is also a defense whose weakness compliment what the Chiefs heavily rely on with their offense. The Chiefs offense is predicated on a solid running game, as Huard is at his best as a game manager that works off a solid running game, the play action, and short passes. Despite having to go without Johnson, I feel his absence may be a value creator, as the marketplace may be overreacting to how bad the Chiefs running game will suffer in this game. The Broncos front is undersized, ranked last in the league, and are prone to wearing down late in games against teams heavily committed to the run. Expect these weaknesses to open up the Chiefs passing game and allow Huard to have an effective game. The Chiefs are also a team not heavily dependent on their receivers in the passing game, which should counter the strengths of the Broncos two starting corners. I am not expecting the Chiefs offense to run over the Broncos, but do expect them to do enough on their end to give this game a good chance of going Over.
The Broncos offense is out of favor and rightfully so. However, unlike their defense, there offense is stockpiled with young talent that should get better as the season progresses. Although the Chiefs defense has played well this season, I question the sustainability of their play. Their run defense is mediocre and should allow the Broncos opportunities on the ground. They are also a defense whose overachievements defending the pass regressed last week, allowing 360 yards in the air and big plays downfield. This should compliment Cutlers strong arm and ability to move the ball in chunks.
I don’t expect this game to fly Over, as neither offense holds decisive advantages. However, nor does neither defense, which should allow both teams to hover around the 20 point mark and grind out an Over.
Dallas/NY Giants Under 49
When both these teams come to mind, most people think offense. Everyone is well aware of how both offenses have performed year to date, as well as all the playmakers both offenses provide. However, little attention has been brought towards how well both teams’ defenses have performed, especially of late. This notion along with the shootout in their first meeting leads me unsurprised to value being created on the Under in this game.
The Giants defense has improved drastically since their first meeting against the Cowboys. The improved health and play of their line and secondary has shored up holes in their pass defense that Romo was able to take advantage of in game one. It has also lead to the Giants allowing more than 17 points just once in their last 6 games. The pressure they have been able to put on opposing quarterbacks just wasn’t there, which allowed Romo to effectively attack the third level of the field and put up quick scoring drives. This time around, Romo should have less time in the pocket, and be forced to utilize more underneath routes and clock time. The expected wind in this game should also affect both teams passing games, take away the deep routes, and encourage a higher rate of rushes than normal.
The Giants game plan will more than likely try to prevent a shootout, and rather try to turn this game into a slugfest predicated on the power running game. This strategy has worked well against more inferior defenses, but expect them to not be able to walk over the Cowboys underrated defense. Nonetheless, the expected implementation of such a strategy is very favorable towards and Under in a game with a total set so high.
Both defenses are improved since their first meeting. The weather will more than likely effect both teams passing games this time around, while both teams are more than likely going to run at a much higher rate in their second meeting. However, in my opinion, these factors are not reflected in the market price, creating value on the Under that I won’t pass up.
Bears/Raiders Under 38
Although it appears the market is slowly adjusting to the recent trend of a regressing offense of the Raiders and their defense being underrated, I feel there still exists some value in their Unders. Expect this game to be one of the lowest scoring games of the week.
The Bears offense is in shambles. Griese has not improved their offense much, while they still need an effective running game to put points on the board. With the Raiders possessing one of the better pass defenses in the league and having their run defense being somewhat of a concern, expect the Bears to run the ball as much as possible and grind out yards. Their run game lacks the ideal explosiveness, and will have to rely on chipping away at the field to get scoring opportunities. With Griese showing an increasing propensity to make costly mistakes, expect the Bears to be encouraged to take less chances downfield, and rely on their defense to win the game for them (against a dormant Raiders offense).
Although the Bears defense has been underachieving all season, this may be a spot in which they return to form. They come into this game a bit healthier and better rested than recent weeks, while getting to face an offense that looks lost in recent games. The Raiders are starting to resemble the offense of last year, while neither quarterback has a solution to improve matters. They, much like the Bears, feel that their best chance of winning this game is to run the ball as much as possible, and hope for there defense to set up good scoring opportunities for there offense. They lack the explosiveness on offense to take advantage of the Bears big play susceptibility they have on defense, and will demand a lot of clock time during scoring drives. They also possess the ideal kicker and punter to keep the ball out of Hester’s hands.
I don’t see either team reaching 20 in a game that should provide a lot of running and field goals.
Detroit/Arizona Under 45
Although there is value on the Cardinals as a side play, concerns of Warner being effective as a starter leaves not enough margin of safety to play them. However, in my opinion, value still exists on the Under in this game.
When people think about the Lions success this year, consensus opinion appears to involuntarily assume their success is a product of Kitna and all the first round offensive drafts picks supporting him. However, their turnover happy defense has not gotten the credit they deserve for the Lions success. Although I think their current level of play is not sustainable in the long run, they have shown no signs of slowing down, as they have allowed seven points in both their last two games. Expect their success to be somewhat sustained in this game, as they will give a very similar look to what the Cardinals were dominated by in last weeks game. Warner’s productivity has dropped off as a starter, while his propensity to error should be magnified by the Lions impressive ability to create turnovers. Don’t be surprised if you see a couple of Cardinals successful drives end with a costly turnover. James inconsistencies coupled with the solid play of the Lions front will also make it hard for the Cardinals to get anything going on the ground, leaving more dependency on a regressing passing game to get things going.
I think the Lions offense may be getting a bit too much credit for the team’s success. They have not shown an ability to put forth solid offensive performances away from home, while their increased commitment to the running game may make their offense better balanced, but such a strategy is correlated more to Under’s in their games. Their defense has quietly performed well this season, has become less prone to allowing the big play, and has not allowed a 200 yard passer in three straight games. The drives they have allowed points in have demanded a lot of time off the clock, while teams have been finding out their best chance of scoring is having to run at a high rate against them. Such a notion is not ideal for a total set this high.
I am not expecting a defensive struggle in this game. However, there just isn’t enough offensive advantages by either team to warrant such a high line. Expect both teams to struggle breaking 20, sending this total Under.
Colts/Chargers Under 48
Another case of anchoring bias affecting the total in this game. The Colts are no longer that pass happy offense and run-over defense that is commensurate to a team averaging a 47.5 total market price this season. I will gladly continue to bet against such a perception until the market corrects itself.
The Chargers offense has witnessed a major drop-off this season. Not only is Tomlinson not playing at the same level as last year, teams are better scheming against him, while Rivers poor play has not been able to counter. Expect more of the same this week, as the Colts will consistently stack the box with Sanders and force a struggling and inconsistent passing game to beat them. The Colts defense has played very well all season, especially defending the pass, where their team speed forces opponents to have to chip away at the field. If the Chargers want to have success in this game, they will have to run as much as possible and grind out yards with an underachieving running game, as the Chargers inconsistent passing game is outclassed in this spot.
As mentioned prior to last weeks debacle, the Chargers run defense is no where near the level they were playing at last year. Having said that, they are nowhere nearly as bad as what they showed last week. Expect them to be determined improve drastically after the embarrassment of last week. Nonetheless, the Colts best chance of winning this game is on the ground, as being without Gonzalez, Harrison (more than likely), possibly Clark, and their startling left tackle will certainly hurt their chances in the air. If all these players are unable to go, the Chargers could take Wayne out of the game, and not leave Manning with much. However, the injury to Castillo and their poor play defending the ground game should allow the Colts to be effective on offense. However, their effectiveness will come at the expense of clock time and more of a grind it out philosophy.
Simply put, the total is too high for a game that will more than likely consistent of run oriented game plans.
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