[Dark Horse]

Fades so far:
New Orleans (losing big to Colts)
Cleveland (losing big to Steelers)
Bills (losing big to Steelers)

Based on teams in flat spots. Record since 2005 is 52-21 ATS. Have to wait until Friday's injury report for final selection. Four early candidates for FOW:
- Bucs
- Chargers
- Bears
- Cardinals

[SBR Lou]

The Saints already used up all my believe in them points, so I wouldn't touch their side with a ten foot pole. They need to prove they can find a rhythm and be able to play against a cover 2 d.

[imgv94]

I don't understand whats going on here?

[Dark Horse]

Based on teams expected to come in with low intensity. Flat teams. I'm fading Arizona for week 3.

BAL -7 -115 (bought 1/2 pt)

Will probably add another unit on BAL 1H, depending on what line I can get.

[rugbybdyb]

thanks for the update

[austintx05]

Wouldn't Dallas be in a flat spot and not the Bears?

[imgv94]

Can you explain what you are trying to do here?

[Dark Horse]

check your pm

[austintx05]

nothing there

[pegasis0066]

I share this philisophy and believe it to be an excellent betting strategy.

I believe the NFL is as much a game of emotion as it is physical or talented. I am a huge Bengals fan, but I really thought the Bengals would be challenged last week to cover - never thought they would give up 51 and lose outright, but nonetheless they faded, badly.

I think you see this type of thing in the NFL all the time, especially among the average teams. I believe the better teams fade less, but do occasionally fade. NE this week might fade a degree coming off a big MNF game against rival SD - this on top of giving 16.5 to Buffalo, who hasn't one yet.

My fade of the week is Cleveland:

- coming off a big, big home win
- traveling to the west coast
- playing an 0-2 Oakland team desperate for a win
- paying in the black hole

[ritehook]

Agree with the Dark Horse on fading Browns and Cardinals. (I also bought the hook, on both games actually.}

Have also faded Tampa. Only 3 bets, but am considering two more in NFL, fading SD (agree) and the Jets.

And, by jiminy, maybe Norv is a big downgrade after all!

[ritehook]

Tho I don't put a lot of stock in most injury reports, unless they're multiple and mostly on the defensive side.

The books are fast in factoring injury/suspension into the line.

[Dark Horse]

I see now that I was unclear. In my first post I mentioned three earlier games from the season. They're not fades. They were.